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National Teams. Women. Friendly
National Teams. Women. Friendly International
30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Not started

National Teams. Women. Friendly

Lithuania (w) - Sweden (w)

International Basketball
Lithuania (w)
Lithuania (w)
- : -
Not started
Sweden (w)
Sweden (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lithuania (w) — 50%

1 · Lithuania (w)50.3%
2 · Sweden (w)49.7%

Model estimate: win Lithuania (w) 50.3%, win Sweden (w) 49.7%. Model favourite — Lithuania (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Lithuania (w) (odds1.50) Score 81:79 Over 136.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 +4.5 (odds1.85) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Lithuania (zh): probability 50% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.50)
  • • no edge over the line (-16 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Over 136.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 136.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F2 +4.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lithuania (w) - Sweden (w) July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lithuania (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.42

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 61.7%
2 38.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.50 → 1.50
Pobeditel P2 2.42 → 2.42

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Lithuania (w) - Sweden (w)

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Overview Championat
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lithuania (w) 61.7% 50.3% market and model agree
Sweden (w) 38.3% 49.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 50.3% / 49.7% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Lithuania (w) / Sweden (w)
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.42 Fonbet · weak value +20.2% · model 49.7%
1 1.50 Fonbet · no value · model 50.3%
Total
Over 136.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 136.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
Over 136.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
Under 136.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.50 66.7%
2.42 41.3%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLithuania (w) - Sweden (w)

Lithuania (w)
0 matches total
Sweden (w)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history