PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Superior Nasional
Superior Nasional International
05.08.2026 00:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
05.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Not started

Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

International Basketball
Leones de Ponce
Leones de Ponce
- : -
Not started
Santeros de Aguada
Santeros de Aguada

Leones de Ponce face Santeros de Aguada on August 5, 2026 in the Superior Nasional, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Leones de Ponce 2-0-3, Santeros de Aguada 3-0-2. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Santeros de Aguada — 61%

1 · Leones de Ponce38.7%
market51%
2 · Santeros de Aguada ✓ Pick61.3%
market49%

Model estimate: win Leones de Ponce 38.7%, win Santeros de Aguada 61.3%. Model favourite — Santeros de Aguada.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Santeros de Aguada (odds1.77) Score 78:82 Under 181.5 (odds2.03) Handicap H2 -1.5 (odds1.85) confidence 61%
  • • Leones de Ponse: forma PPPVP (1-4)
  • • Santeras de Aguada: forma VVVPV (4-1)
  • • ochnye 0-3 (za 3)
  • • Model backs Santeras de Aguada: probability 61% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.77)
  • • edge over the line +5 pp — value pick
  • • Total: Under 181.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 181.5 (odds 2.03)
  • • Handicap F2 -1.5: score forecast 78:82 (diff -4) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada August 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leones de Ponce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.62 / 2 2.15

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.4% 4 books · best price +8.7%
1 51.5%
2 ✓ Pick 48.5%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.94 → 1.94
Winner P2 1.77 → 1.77

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 05.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market 1 57.0% @ 1.62 / 2 43.0% @ 2.15
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones de Ponce 47.7% 38.7%
Santeros de Aguada 52.3% 61.3% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 38.7% / 61.3% probabilities
Rating 1,566 / 2,028 Leones de Ponce / Santeros de Aguada
RD 176 / 186 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,215-1,917 / 1,655-2,400 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 Fonbet · value +31.8% · model 61.3%
1 1.62 Fonbet · no value · model 38.7%
Total
Over 181.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
Over 182.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.47 68.0%
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 1.72 58.1%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 2.00 50.0%
— — 2.12 47.2%
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 2.50 40.0%
— — 2.37 42.2%
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 2.00 50.0%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.72 58.1%
— — 1.64 61.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 181.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 182.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Over 183.5 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%
Over 184.5 — — 1.94 51.6%
Over 185.5 — — 2.03 49.3%
Under 181.5 — — 2.03 49.3%
Under 182.5 — — 1.94 51.6%
Under 183.5 1.86 53.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
Under 184.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Under 185.5 — — 1.70 58.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.94 51.6%
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 2.15 46.5% 1.77 56.5%
Match center
Leones de Ponce
W L L W L
2026-08-03 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce Santeros de Aguada 105:106 Leones de Ponce
2026-08-01 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce Leones de Ponce 89:96 Santeros de Aguada
2026-07-30 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de Ponce
2026-07-28 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeros de Aguada
2026-07-26 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce Santeros de Aguada 93:70 Leones de Ponce
2 Wins
3 Losses
88.2 Scored
94.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Santeros de Aguada
L W W L W
2026-08-03 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Santeros de Aguada 105:106 Leones de Ponce Santeros de Aguada
2026-08-01 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce 89:96 Santeros de Aguada Santeros de Aguada
2026-07-30 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de Ponce Santeros de Aguada
2026-07-28 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeros de Aguada Santeros de Aguada
2026-07-26 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Santeros de Aguada 93:70 Leones de Ponce Santeros de Aguada
3 Wins
2 Losses
94.8 Scored
88.2 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

Leones de Ponce
3 matches total
Santeros de Aguada
Leones de Ponce: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Santeros de Aguada: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Santeros de Aguada 100:89 (2026-07-30) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 211 goals (105:106, 2026-08-03) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-08-03 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Santeros de Aguada 105:106 Leones de Ponce
2026-08-01 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Leones de Ponce 89:96 Santeros de Aguada
2026-07-30 BSN 2026, Playoffs
Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de Ponce