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Superior Nasional
Superior Nasional International
01.08.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

Superior Nasional

International

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

International Basketball
Leones de Ponce
Leones de Ponce
49 : 56
Finished
Santeros de Aguada
Santeros de Aguada

Leones de Ponce meet Santeros de Aguada on August 1, 2026 in the Superior Nasional, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Leones de Ponce 3-0-2, Santeros de Aguada 3-0-2. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 62% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Leones de Ponce — 62%

Pure model vs market (1 · Leones de Ponce): model 44% · market 92% Δ −48 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Leones de Ponce ✓ Pick62.4%
market92%
2 · Santeros de Aguada37.6%
market8%

Model estimate: win Leones de Ponce 62.4%, win Santeros de Aguada 37.6%. Model favourite — Leones de Ponce.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leones de Ponce (odds1.43) Score 82:78 Under 181.5 (odds2.03) ✓ Handicap H2 +5.5 (odds1.85) ✗ confidence 63% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Leones de Ponse: forma PVPVV (3-2)
  • • Santeras de Aguada: forma VPVVP (3-2)
  • • ochnye 1-2 (za 3)
  • • Model backs Leones de Ponse: probability 63% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.43)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Under 181.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 181.5 (odds 2.03)
  • • Handicap F2 +5.5: score forecast 82:78 (diff +4) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada August 1, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leones de Ponce.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leones de Ponce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: Leones de Ponce 62.4% / Santeros de Aguada 37.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 ✓ Pick 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.42 ↑ 1.50
Winner 2 2.65 ↓ 2.42

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market 1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 49:56
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 62.4% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.779 / LogLoss 0.978
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 55.0% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.604 / LogLoss 0.798
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones de Ponce 63.7% 62.4% market and model agree
Santeros de Aguada 36.3% 37.6%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 62.4% / 37.6% probabilities
Rating 1,676 / 1,902 Leones de Ponce / Santeros de Aguada
RD 197 / 213 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,283-2,069 / 1,476-2,329 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.58 market consensus · no value · model 37.6%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 62.4%
Total
Over 172.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 173.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% —
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
— — 2.15 46.5%
— — 2.18 45.9%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 2.08 48.1%
— — 1.93 51.8%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.18 45.9%
— — 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.05 48.8%
— — 1.92 52.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 172.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 173.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 174.5 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 175.5 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 176.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 177.5 — — 1.62 61.7%
Over 178.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 179.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 180.5 — — 1.52 65.8%
Over 181.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
Over 182.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 183.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% 1.80 55.6%
Over 184.5 — — 1.48 67.6%
Over 185.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Under 183.5 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.42 70.4%
2.53 39.5% 2.55 39.2% 11.00 9.1% 2.65 37.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 5-0-3
2026-08-01 · Freseros de Irapuato 92:89 Mineros de Zakatekas
2026-07-31 · Freseros de Irapuato 93:105 Mineros de Zakatekas
2025-07-25 · Freseros de Irapuato 61:102 Mineros de Zakatekas
2025-07-24 · Freseros de Irapuato 86:85 Mineros de Zakatekas
2024-08-18 · Freseros de Irapuato 92:86 Mineros de Zakatekas
Source: ruscore
Leones de Ponce
L W L W W
30.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 89:100 Santeras de Aguada
28.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeras de Aguada
26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 77:136 Santeras de Aguada
19.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 100:86 San-GermanSan-German
17.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 98:90 San-GermanSan-German
3 Wins
2 Losses
90.2 Scored
98.4 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Santeros de Aguada
W L W W L
30.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de PonseLeones de Ponse
28.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 80:87 Leones de PonseLeones de Ponse
26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 136:77 Leones de PonseLeones de Ponse
20.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 101:94 Kapitanes de AresiboKapitanes de Aresibo
18.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 81:89 Kapitanes de AresiboKapitanes de Aresibo
3 Wins
2 Losses
99.6 Scored
87.2 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

Leones de Ponce
3 matches total
Santeros de Aguada
Leones de Ponce: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Santeros de Aguada: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Santeras de Aguada 77:136 (26.07 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 213 goals (77:136, 26.07 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

30.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponse
89:100
Santeras de Aguada
28.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponse
87:80
Santeras de Aguada
26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponse
77:136
Santeras de Aguada