Superior Nasional International

15.07.2026 03:00 MSK Match prediction

15.07.2026 03:00 MSK

Finished

Superior Nasional

San German - Leones de Ponce

International Basketball

San German

91 : 94

Finished

Leones de Ponce

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 San German — 56%

Pure model vs market (1 · San German): model 55% · market 26% Δ +29 pp model estimates above the market

1 · San German ✓ Прогноз56.1%

2 · Leones de Ponce43.9%

Model estimate: win San German 56.1%, win Leones de Ponce 43.9%. Model favourite — San German.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1San German (odds1.64) confidence 55% ✗ outcome missed

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction San German - Leones de Ponce 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leones de Ponce.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leones de Ponce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 3.50 / 2 1.25
Glicko: San German 56.1% / Leones de Ponce 43.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.6%

1 ✓ Прогноз 26.3%

2 73.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Победитель П1 1.57 ↑ 3.40

Победитель П2 2.25 ↓ 1.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 15.07.2026 03:00 MSK

Form 4 matches

H2H 2

Match center

San German - Leones de Ponce

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 2 очных встреч.

Form 2/2 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 91:94

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

San German 56.2% 56.1% market and model agree

Leones de Ponce 43.8% 43.9%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 56.1% / 43.9% probabilities

Rating 1,814 / 1,186 San German / Leones de Ponce

RD 270 / 270 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,274-2,353 / 647-1,726 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 43.9%

1 3.50 Fonbet · weak value +96.4% · model 56.1%

Total

Over 164.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Over 165.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
П1 -1.5	1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	—
П1 -2.5	1.83 54.6%	1.84 54.4%	—
П1 -4.5	1.89 52.9%	1.90 52.6%	—
П2 +1.5	1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	—
П2 +2.5	1.85 54.1%	1.86 53.8%	—
П2 +4.5	1.79 55.9%	1.80 55.6%	—
П2 -1.5	—	—	1.87 53.5%
П2 -2.5	—	—	1.72 58.1%
П2 -3.5	—	—	1.82 55.0%
П2 -4.5	—	—	1.55 64.5%
П2 -5.5	—	—	1.45 69.0%
П2 -6.5	—	—	1.62 61.7%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
ТБ 164.5	—	—	1.47 68.0%
ТБ 165.5	—	—	1.55 64.5%
ТБ 166.5	—	—	1.48 67.6%
ТБ 167.5	—	—	1.55 64.5%
ТБ 168.5	—	—	1.65 60.6%
ТБ 169.5	—	—	1.45 69.0%
ТБ 170.5	—	—	1.55 64.5%
ТБ 171.5	—	—	1.65 60.6%
ТБ 172.5	—	—	1.40 71.4%
ТБ 173.5	—	—	1.48 67.6%
ТБ 178.5	1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%	—
ТБ 179.5	1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%	—
ТМ 178.5	1.88 53.2%	1.89 52.9%	—
ТМ 179.5	1.88 53.2%	1.89 52.9%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
П1	1.63 61.4%	1.64 61.0%	3.50 28.6%	1.57 63.7%
П2	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	1.25 80.0%	2.26 44.3%

Match center

San German

W W

13.07 03:00 МСК Superior Nasional

San German 95:91 Leones de Ponse

11.07 03:00 МСК Superior Nasional

San German 88:75 Leones de Ponse

2 Wins

0 Losses

91.5 Scored

83.0 Conceded

100% Win percentage

Leones de Ponce

L L

13.07 03:00 МСК Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 91:95 San-German

11.07 03:00 МСК Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 75:88 San-German

0 Wins

2 Losses

83.0 Scored

91.5 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySan German - Leones de Ponce

San German

2 matches total

Leones de Ponce

San German: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Leones de Ponce: 2 (100%)

Biggest win San-German 88:75 (11.07 03:00 МСК) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 186 goals (95:91, 13.07 03:00 МСК) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 03:00 МСК Superior Nasional

San-German

95:91

Leones de Ponse

11.07 03:00 МСК Superior Nasional

San-German

88:75

Leones de Ponse