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Superior Nasional International

30.07.2026 00:00 UTC

Not started

Superior Nasional

Santeros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce

International Basketball

Santeros de Aguada

- : -

Not started

Leones de Ponce

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Santeros de Aguada — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Santeros de Aguada): model 41% · market 71% Δ −30 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Santeros de Aguada54.3%

2 · Leones de Ponce45.7%

Model estimate: win Santeros de Aguada 54.3%, win Leones de Ponce 45.7%. Model favourite — Santeros de Aguada.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Santeros de Aguada (odds1.65) Score 81:79 Under 178.5 (odds2.03) Handicap H2 +2.5 (odds1.85) confidence 54%

• Santeras de Aguada: forma PVVP (2)
• Leones de Ponse: forma VPVVV (4-1)
• ochnye 1 (za 2)
• Model backs Santeras de Aguada: probability 54% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.65)
• no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
• Total: Under 178.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
• at line 178.5 (odds 2.03)
• Handicap F2 +2.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Santeros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Santeros de Aguada. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.30 / 2 3.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%

1 71.1%

2 28.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.67 → 1.67

Pobeditel P2 2.07 → 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 30.07.2026 00:00 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 2

Match center

Santeros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 2 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 4/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Santeros de Aguada 55.4% 54.3% market and model agree

Leones de Ponce 44.7% 45.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 54.3% / 45.7% probabilities

Rating 1,579 / 1,940 Santeros de Aguada / Leones de Ponce

RD 233 / 211 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,113-2,044 / 1,518-2,362 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.20 Fonbet · weak value +46.1% · model 45.7%

1 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 54.3%

Total

Over 178.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Over 179.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet
	—	1.75 57.1%
	1.79 55.9%	—
	1.79 55.9%	—
	1.89 52.9%	—
	—	2.37 42.2%
	1.89 52.9%	—
	1.89 52.9%	—
	1.79 55.9%	—
	—	1.96 51.0%
	—	1.64 61.0%
	—	2.07 48.3%
	—	1.96 51.0%
	—	2.07 48.3%
	—	2.07 48.3%
	—	1.96 51.0%
	—	1.85 54.1%
	—	1.75 57.1%
	—	1.67 59.9%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet
Over 178.5	—	1.70 58.8%
Over 179.5	—	1.75 57.1%
Over 180.5	—	1.70 58.8%
Over 181.5	1.86 53.8%	1.70 58.8%
Over 182.5	—	1.75 57.1%
Over 183.5	1.81 55.3%	1.82 55.0%
Over 184.5	—	1.88 53.2%
Over 185.5	—	1.96 51.0%
Over 186.5	—	2.03 49.3%
Under 178.5	—	2.03 49.3%
Under 179.5	—	1.96 51.0%
Under 180.5	—	2.03 49.3%
Under 181.5	1.82 55.0%	2.03 49.3%
Under 182.5	—	1.96 51.0%
Under 183.5	1.87 53.5%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet	Leon
	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%
	2.97 33.7%	3.20 31.3%	3.21 31.2%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-0-6

2026-07-28 · Aguada Santeros 80:87 Leones de Ponse

2026-07-26 · Aguada Santeros 93:70 Leones de Ponse

2026-06-27 · Aguada Santeros 95:109 Leones de Ponse

2026-06-07 · Aguada Santeros 91:98 Leones de Ponse

2026-05-14 · Aguada Santeros 99:97 Leones de Ponse

Source: ruscore

Santeros de Aguada

L W W L

28.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Santeros de Aguada 80:87 Leones de Ponse

26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Santeros de Aguada 136:77 Leones de Ponse

20.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Santeros de Aguada 101:94 Kapitanes de Aresibo

18.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Santeros de Aguada 81:89 Kapitanes de Aresibo

2 Wins

2 Losses

99.5 Scored

86.8 Conceded

50% Win percentage

Leones de Ponce

W L W W W

28.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeras de Aguada

26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 77:136 Santeras de Aguada

19.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 100:86 San-German

17.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 98:90 San-German

15.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce 94:91 San-German

4 Wins

1 Losses

91.2 Scored

96.6 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySanteros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce

Santeros de Aguada

2 matches total

Leones de Ponce

Santeros de Aguada: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Leones de Ponce: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Santeras de Aguada 136:77 (26.07 00:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 213 goals (136:77, 26.07 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

28.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Santeras de Aguada

80:87

Leones de Ponse

26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional

Santeras de Aguada

136:77

Leones de Ponse