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Superior Nasional International

03.08.2026 00:00 UTC

Not started

Superior Nasional

Santeros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce

International Basketball

Santeros de Aguada

- : -

Not started

Leones de Ponce

Santeros de Aguada meet Leones de Ponce on August 3, 2026 in the Superior Nasional, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Santeros de Aguada 4-0-1, Leones de Ponce 2-0-3. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Santeros de Aguada — 60%

Pure model vs market (1 · Santeros de Aguada): model 63% · market 59% Δ +4 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Santeros de Aguada ✓ Pick59.6%

market59%

2 · Leones de Ponce40.4%

market41%

Model estimate: win Santeros de Aguada 59.6%, win Leones de Ponce 40.4%. Model favourite — Santeros de Aguada.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Santeros de Aguada (odds1.57) Score 82:78 Under 179.5 (odds2.03) Handicap H1 -3.5 (odds1.85) confidence 55%

• Santeras de Aguada: forma VVPVV (4-1)
• Leones de Ponse: forma PPVPV (2-3)
• ochnye 2-1 (za 3)
• Model backs Santeras de Aguada: probability 55% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.57)
• no edge over the line (-9 pp) — informational only
• Total: Under 179.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
• at line 179.5 (odds 2.03)
• Handicap F1 -3.5: score forecast 82:78 (diff +4) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Santeros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce August 3, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Santeros de Aguada. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.57 / 2 2.25

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%

1 ✓ Pick 58.9%

2 41.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.57 → 1.57

Pobeditel P2 2.25 → 2.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 03.08.2026 00:00 UTC

Market 1 58.9% @ 1.57 / 2 41.1% @ 2.25

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Santeros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Santeros de Aguada 59.4% 59.6% market and model agree

Leones de Ponce 40.6% 40.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 59.6% / 40.4% probabilities

Rating 2,007 / 1,585 Santeros de Aguada / Leones de Ponce

RD 192 / 181 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,622-2,391 / 1,224-1,946 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.25 Fonbet · no value · model 40.4%

1 1.57 Fonbet · no value · model 59.6%

Total

Over 179.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Over 180.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
—	—	1.67 59.9%
—	—	1.75 57.1%
1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%	1.85 54.1%
—	—	1.96 51.0%
—	—	2.07 48.3%
1.88 53.2%	1.89 52.9%	—
—	—	2.07 48.3%
—	—	1.96 51.0%
—	—	1.85 54.1%
—	—	1.75 57.1%
—	—	1.67 59.9%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 179.5	—	—	1.70 58.8%
Over 180.5	—	—	1.75 57.1%
Over 181.5	—	—	1.82 55.0%
Over 182.5	1.86 53.8%	1.87 53.5%	1.88 53.2%
Over 183.5	—	—	1.96 51.0%
Under 179.5	—	—	2.03 49.3%
Under 180.5	—	—	1.96 51.0%
Under 181.5	—	—	1.88 53.2%
Under 182.5	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.82 55.0%
Under 183.5	—	—	1.75 57.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.53 65.4%	1.54 64.9%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%
	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%

Match center

Santeros de Aguada

W W L W W

2026-08-01 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada Leones de Ponce 89:96 Santeros de Aguada

2026-07-30 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de Ponce

2026-07-28 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeros de Aguada

2026-07-26 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada Santeros de Aguada 93:70 Leones de Ponce

2026-07-20 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada Santeros de Aguada 101:94 Capitanes de Arecibo

4 Wins

1 Losses

94.0 Scored

85.8 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Leones de Ponce

L L W L W

2026-08-01 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Leones de Ponce 89:96 Santeros de Aguada Leones de Ponce

2026-07-30 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de Ponce Leones de Ponce

2026-07-28 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeros de Aguada Leones de Ponce

2026-07-26 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada 93:70 Leones de Ponce Leones de Ponce

2026-07-19 BSN 2026, Playoffs

San German 86:100 Leones de Ponce Leones de Ponce

2 Wins

3 Losses

87.0 Scored

91.0 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySanteros de Aguada - Leones de Ponce

Santeros de Aguada

3 matches total

Leones de Ponce

Santeros de Aguada: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Leones de Ponce: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Santeros de Aguada 100:89 (2026-07-30) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 189 goals (100:89, 2026-07-30) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-08-01 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Leones de Ponce 89:96 Santeros de Aguada

2026-07-30 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Santeros de Aguada 100:89 Leones de Ponce

2026-07-28 BSN 2026, Playoffs

Leones de Ponce 87:80 Santeros de Aguada