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Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

12.06.2026 22:15 UTC Match prediction

12.06.2026 22:15 UTC

Finished

Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada - Penyarol

Basketball

Aguada

78 : 71

Finished

Penyarol

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aguada - Penyarol June 12, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Aguada. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%

1 91.6%

2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Stadium Aguada (Montevideo)

Referee Laulhe A. 🇺🇾 - Romero C. 🇺🇾 - Dutra J. 🇺🇾

Start 12.06.2026 22:15 UTC

Match center

Aguada - Penyarol

Array

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.93 market consensus · line only

1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 143.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only

Over 145.5 1.92 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.70 58.8%
	2.30 43.5%
	2.45 40.8%
	2.25 44.4%
	2.45 40.8%
	2.02 49.5%
	1.45 69.0%
	1.35 74.1%
	1.55 64.5%
	1.47 68.0%
	3.00 33.3%
	2.50 40.0%
	2.25 44.4%
	1.95 51.3%
	1.80 55.6%
	1.55 64.5%
	1.43 69.9%
	1.72 58.1%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 143.5	1.53 65.4%
Over 145.5	1.92 52.1%
Over 146.5	1.95 51.3%
Over 148.5	1.35 74.1%
Over 149.5	1.55 64.5%
Over 150.5	1.73 57.8%
Over 151.5	1.93 51.8%
Over 152.5	2.15 46.5%
Over 153.5	2.05 48.8%
Over 154.5	2.30 43.5%
Over 155.5	2.55 39.2%
Over 156.5	2.90 34.5%
Over 157.5	2.65 37.7%
Over 158.5	2.00 50.0%
Over 159.5	2.15 46.5%
Over 160.5	2.35 42.6%
Over 161.5	2.55 39.2%
Over 162.5	1.78 56.2%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Bet365	Bet365 (no latency)	Betcity	Betfair	Bettery	Fonbet	Leon
	1.69 59.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.87 53.5%	1.82 55.0%	1.01 99.0%	1.84 54.4%
	2.00 50.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	2.03 49.3%	2.04 49.0%	1.88 53.2%	11.00 9.1%	1.87 53.5%

Match center

Aguada

L L W W L

09.06 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada 84:89 Penyarol

03.06 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada 82:99 Penyarol

28.05 21:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada 92:91 Nasonal

25.05 21:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada 87:74 Nasonal

21.05 21:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada 89:109 Nasonal

2 Wins

3 Losses

86.8 Scored

92.4 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Penyarol

W W W W W

09.06 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Penyarol 89:84 Aguada

03.06 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Penyarol 99:82 Aguada

26.05 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Penyarol 93:81 Defensor Sporting

22.05 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Penyarol 81:61 Defensor Sporting

19.05 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Penyarol 101:51 Defensor Sporting

5 Wins

0 Losses

92.6 Scored

71.8 Conceded

100% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAguada - Penyarol

Aguada

2 matches total

Penyarol

Aguada: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Penyarol: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Penyarol 82:99 (03.06 22:15 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 181 goals (82:99, 03.06 22:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

09.06 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada

84:89

Penyarol

03.06 22:15 UTC Uruguay: Liga Urugvaya - Playoff

Aguada

82:99

Penyarol

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Aguada

Data 0 / 0 / 4 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Penyarol

Tournament bracket

1/4 (1) Penyarol 3:0 (8) Urunday

1/4 (4) Malvin streak (5) Defensor Sporting

1/4 (2) Nasonal streak (7) Bigua

1/4 (3) Khebraika and Makabi streak (6) Aguada