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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
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WNBA. Outrights

Chikago Skay (Zh) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Basketball
Chikago Skay (Zh)
Chikago Skay (Zh)
- : -
Not started
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)

Chikago Skay (Zh) take on Phoenix Mercury (w) on August 4, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Chikago Skay (Zh) 3-0-2, Phoenix Mercury (w) 2-0-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Phoenix Mercury (w) — 51%

Pure model vs market (2 · Phoenix Mercury (w)): model 41% · market 51% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Chikago Skay (Zh)49.4%
2 · Phoenix Mercury (w)50.6%

Model estimate: win Chikago Skay (Zh) 49.4%, win Phoenix Mercury (w) 50.6%. Model favourite — Phoenix Mercury (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Chikago Skay (Zh) (odds1.81) Score 81:79 confidence 53%
  • • Chikago Skay (Zh): forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • • Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): forma PVVPP (2-3)
  • • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • • Model backs Chikago Skay (Zh): probability 53% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • • no edge over the line (-2 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chikago Skay (Zh) - Phoenix Mercury (w) August 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Phoenix Mercury (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / 2 1.90

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.1% 3 books · best price +2.7%
1 48.7%
2 51.3%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Chikago Skay (Zh)
2-3LWWLL
points for 86.4points against 89.5
Phoenix Mercury (w)
5-5WWLLLLWLWW
points for 84.9points against 85.7

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 49.2% @ 1.96 / 2 50.8% @ 1.90
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
Match center

Chikago Skay (Zh) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Movement Line history
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Chikago Skay (Zh) 48.7% 49.4%
Phoenix Mercury (w) 51.3% 50.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 49.4% / 50.6% probabilities
Rating 1,584 / 1,408 Chikago Skay (Zh) / Phoenix Mercury (w)
RD 122 / 130 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,340-1,829 / 1,148-1,668 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: P1 | odds 1.96 | edge 9.3% | ROI 14.7% | BetBoom

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 50.6%
1 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 49.4%
Total
Over 175.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Over 177.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8%
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8%
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 177.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 178.5 1.87 53.5% 1.86 53.8% —
Over 179 — — 1.91 52.4%
Over 180.5 1.87 53.5% — —
Over 181 — — 1.92 52.1%
Over 181.5 — 1.90 52.6% —
Under 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 177.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 178.5 1.93 51.8% 1.94 51.6% —
Under 180.5 1.93 51.8% — —
Under 181.5 — 1.90 52.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.95 51.3%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
Match center
Chikago Skay (Zh)
W W L L W
31.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh) 84:83 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
30.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh) 94:88 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
22.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh) 94:95 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
19.07 18:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh) 91:93 Atlanta Drim (Zh)Atlanta Drim (Zh)
17.07 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh) 96:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
91.8 Scored
88.2 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Phoenix Mercury (w)
L W L L
01.08 19:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 92:94 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
22.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
18.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
1 Wins
3 Losses
86.0 Scored
92.0 Conceded
25% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyChikago Skay (Zh) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Chikago Skay (Zh)
1 matches total
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Chikago Skay (Zh): 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 0 (0%)
Biggest win Chikago Skay (Zh) 77:66 (08.07 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 143 goals (77:66, 08.07 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

08.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh)
77:66
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)