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WNBA
WNBA
29.07.2026 00:00 UTC
29.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Not started

WNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w)

Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
- : -
Not started
Golden State Valkyries (w)
Golden State Valkyries (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Golden State Valkyries (w) — 68%

Pure model vs market (2 · Golden State Valkyries (w)): model 63% · market 69% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Phoenix Mercury (w)31.8%
market31%
2 · Golden State Valkyries (w) ✓ Pick68.2%
market69%

Model estimate: win Phoenix Mercury (w) 31.8%, win Golden State Valkyries (w) 68.2%. Model favourite — Golden State Valkyries (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Golden State Valkyries (w) (odds1.43) Score 77:83 confidence 67%
  • • Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): forma VPPPP (1-4)
  • • Golden State Valkyries (Zh): forma PVVVV (4-1)
  • • ochnye 0-1 (za 1)
  • • Model backs Golden State Valkyries (Zh): probability 67% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.43)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w) July 29, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Golden State Valkyries (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 3.09 / 2 1.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 3.8%
1 31.2%
2 ✓ Pick 68.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Phoenix Mercury (w)
#12GP 248-16PPG 82.6OPP 86.6
Golden State Valkyries (w)
#3GP 2013-7

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

1Wins4
82.4Points on average84.4

Head-to-head matches: 5 · average total 166.8 (points)

Team form

Phoenix Mercury (w)
5-5WWLLLLWLWW
points for 84.9points against 85.7
Golden State Valkyries (w)
8-2WWWWLLWWWW
points for 79.9points against 75.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Movement Line history
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Phoenix Mercury (w) 31.4% 31.8%
Golden State Valkyries (w) 68.6% 68.2% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 31.8% / 68.2% probabilities
Rating 1,276 / 1,859 Phoenix Mercury (w) / Golden State Valkyries (w)
RD 134 / 92 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,008-1,545 / 1,675-2,042 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 68.2%
1 3.05 market consensus · no value · model 31.8%
Total
Over 155 1.90 market consensus · line only
Over 155.5 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Leon
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Leon
Over 155 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 155.5 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6%
Under 155 — 1.90 52.6%
Under 155.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Leon
3.00 33.3% 3.09 32.4%
1.39 71.9% 1.40 71.4%
Match center
Phoenix Mercury (w)
W L L L L
22.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
18.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
13.07 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 100:104 Minnesota Links (Zh)Minnesota Links (Zh)
11.07 20:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 58:106 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
1 Wins
4 Losses
82.0 Scored
96.8 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Golden State Valkyries (w)
L W W W W
21.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 82:90 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
18.07 22:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 74:69 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
15.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 88:75 Indiana Fiver (Zh)Indiana Fiver (Zh)
10.07 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 79:64 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
08.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 83:75 Toronto Tempo (Zh)Toronto Tempo (Zh)
4 Wins
1 Losses
81.2 Scored
74.6 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w)

Phoenix Mercury (w)
1 matches total
Golden State Valkyries (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Golden State Valkyries (w): 1 (100%)
Biggest win Golden State Valkyries (Zh) 81:87 (10.06 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 168 goals (81:87, 10.06 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

10.06 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
81:87
Golden State Valkyries (Zh)