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WNBA. Outrights

31.07.2026 17:00 UTC

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WNBA. Outrights

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

Basketball

Phoenix Mercury (w)

- : -

Not started

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) — 59%

Pure model vs market (2 · Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)): model 61% · market 54% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Phoenix Mercury (w)41.3%

market46%

2 · Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) ✓ Pick58.7%

market54%

Model estimate: win Phoenix Mercury (w) 41.3%, win Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 58.7%. Model favourite — Nyu-York Liberti (Zh).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) July 31, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Nyu-York Liberti (Zh). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / 2 1.79

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 3.9%

1 46.3%

2 ✓ Pick 53.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Phoenix Mercury (w)

5-5WWLLLLWLWW

points for 84.9points against 85.7

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

2-3WLLWL

points for 87.8points against 83.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 31.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 2

Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 2 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 4/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Movement Line history

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Phoenix Mercury (w) 41.5% 41.3%

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 58.5% 58.7% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 41.3% / 58.7% probabilities

Rating 1,414 / 1,810 Phoenix Mercury (w) / Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

RD 133 / 116 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,149-1,680 / 1,578-2,043 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.77 market consensus · weak value +3.9% · model 58.7%

1 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 41.3%

Total

Over 175.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Under 175.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.96 51.0%
—	—	1.96 51.0%
1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.86 53.8%
—	—	1.86 53.8%
1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
Over 175.5	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%
Under 175.5	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%	2.08 48.1%
	1.76 56.8%	1.76 56.8%	1.79 55.9%

Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w)

W L L L

22.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)

19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)

18.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)

13.07 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) 100:104 Minnesota Links (Zh)

1 Wins

3 Losses

88.0 Scored

94.5 Conceded

25% Win percentage

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

W W W L L

29.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 113:109 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)

22.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 95:94 Chikago Skay (Zh)

20.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 99:98 Dallas Vings (Zh)

18.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 88:108 Indiana Fiver (Zh)

12.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 91:93 Toronto Tempo (Zh)

3 Wins

2 Losses

97.2 Scored

100.4 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury (w) - Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

Phoenix Mercury (w)

2 matches total

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

Phoenix Mercury (w): 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh): 2 (100%)

Biggest win Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 74:84 (27.05 21:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 158 goals (74:84, 27.05 21:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

29.05 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA

Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)

68:75

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

27.05 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)

74:84

Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)