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WNBA
WNBA International
05.08.2026 23:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
05.08.2026 23:00 UTC
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WNBA

Atlanta Dream (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

International Basketball
Atlanta Dream (w)
Atlanta Dream (w)
- : -
Not started
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)

Atlanta Dream (w) meet Phoenix Mercury (w) on August 5, 2026 in the WNBA, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Atlanta Dream (w) 4-0-1, Phoenix Mercury (w) 4-0-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Phoenix Mercury (w) — 51%

1 · Atlanta Dream (w)49.3%
2 · Phoenix Mercury (w)50.7%

Model estimate: win Atlanta Dream (w) 49.3%, win Phoenix Mercury (w) 50.7%. Model favourite — Phoenix Mercury (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Phoenix Mercury (w) (odds3.16) Score 79:81 Under 171.5 (odds2.33) Handicap H2 +6.5 (odds1.90) confidence 51%
  • • Atlanta (zh): forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • • Finiks (zh): forma VVVVP (4-1)
  • • Model backs Finiks (zh): probability 51% vs 32% on the line (odds 3.16)
  • • edge over the line +19 pp — value pick
  • • Total: Under 171.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 171.5 (odds 2.33)
  • • Handicap F2 +6.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atlanta Dream (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w) August 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Atlanta Dream (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.44 / 2 2.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.0% 4 books · best price +1.4%
1 66.0%
2 34.0%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.37 → 1.37
Winner P2 3.10 → 3.10

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Atlanta Dream (w)
#6GP 2313-10PPG 87.7OPP 84.4
Phoenix Mercury (w)
#12GP 248-16PPG 82.6OPP 86.6

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 05.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 66.0% @ 1.44 / 2 34.0% @ 2.80
Form 6 matches
Match center

Atlanta Dream (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Atlanta Dream (w) 69.4% 49.3% market favourite
Phoenix Mercury (w) 30.7% 50.7% Glicko contrarian

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 49.3% / 50.7% probabilities
Rating 1,583 / 1,665 Atlanta Dream (w) / Phoenix Mercury (w)
RD 160 / 165 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,262-1,903 / 1,336-1,995 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.80 Fonbet · value +41.9% · model 50.7%
1 1.44 Fonbet · no value · model 49.3%
Total
Over 171.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 172.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
— — 2.37 42.2%
— — 1.44 69.4%
— — 1.44 69.4%
— — 2.37 42.2%
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 1.96 51.0%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.58 63.3%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 171.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 172.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 173.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 174.5 — — 1.58 63.3%
Over 175.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 176.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.70 58.8%
Over 177.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.77 56.5%
Over 178.5 1.90 52.6% — 1.90 52.6%
Under 176.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 177.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 178.5 1.90 52.6% — —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5%
2.80 35.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7% 2.83 35.3%