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WNBA
WNBA International
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Not started

WNBA

International

Chicago Sky (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

International Basketball
Chicago Sky (w)
Chicago Sky (w)
- : -
Not started
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)

Chicago Sky (w) meet Phoenix Mercury (w) on August 4, 2026 in the WNBA, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Chicago Sky (w) 3-0-2, Phoenix Mercury (w) 3-0-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Chicago Sky (w) — 52%

Pure model vs market (1 · Chicago Sky (w)): model 40% · market 53% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Chicago Sky (w)51.8%
2 · Phoenix Mercury (w)48.2%

Model estimate: win Chicago Sky (w) 51.8%, win Phoenix Mercury (w) 48.2%. Model favourite — Chicago Sky (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Chicago Sky (w) (odds1.81) Score 81:79 Under 170.5 (odds2.33) Handicap H1 -1.5 (odds1.90) confidence 52%
  • • Chikago (zh): forma PPPVV (2-3)
  • • Finiks (zh): forma VVVPP (3-2)
  • • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • • Model backs Chikago (zh): probability 52% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Under 170.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 170.5 (odds 2.33)
  • • Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chicago Sky (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w) August 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Chicago Sky (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.80 / 2 2.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.6%
1 52.6%
2 47.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.80 → 1.80
Pobeditel P2 2.00 → 2.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 52.6% @ 1.80 / 2 47.4% @ 2.00
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
Match center

Chicago Sky (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Chicago Sky (w) 52.6% 51.8% market and model agree
Phoenix Mercury (w) 47.4% 48.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 51.8% / 48.2% probabilities
Rating 1,283 / 1,653 Chicago Sky (w) / Phoenix Mercury (w)
RD 184 / 186 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 916-1,650 / 1,280-2,025 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.00 Fonbet · no value · model 48.2%
1 1.80 Fonbet · no value · model 51.8%
Total
Over 170.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 171.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.96 51.0%
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 2.23 44.8%
— — 2.37 42.2%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 2.23 44.8%
— — 2.37 42.2%
— — 2.80 35.7%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.58 63.3%
— — 1.51 66.2%
— — 1.44 69.4%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 170.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 171.5 — — 1.58 63.3%
Over 172.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 173.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 174.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Over 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
Over 176.5 — — 1.94 51.6%
Over 177.5 — — 2.03 49.3%
Over 178.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 179.5 — — 2.23 44.8%
Over 180.5 — — 2.33 42.9%
Under 170.5 — — 2.33 42.9%
Under 171.5 — — 2.23 44.8%
Under 172.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Under 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6%
2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyChicago Sky (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Chicago Sky (w)
2 matches total
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Chicago Sky (w): 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 1 (50%)
Biggest win Chicago Sky (w) 66:77 (2026-07-08) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 143 goals (66:77, 2026-07-08) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-07-08 WNBA 2026
Phoenix Mercury (w) 66:77 Chicago Sky (w)
08.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Chikago (zh)
77:66
Finiks (zh)