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WNBA
WNBA USA
13.06.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction
13.06.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

Connecticut Sun - Indiana Fever

USA Basketball
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut Sun
75 : 85
Finished
Indiana Fever
Indiana Fever

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Connecticut Sun - Indiana Fever June 13, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Indiana Fever. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 5.00 / 2 1.15

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.0%
1 18.7%
2 81.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Connecticut Sun
#7GP 194-15
Indiana Fever
#3GP 138-5

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

37Wins32
53.6%Win %46.4%
77.3Points per game76.6
86.3Offensive rating84.8
85.5Defensive rating85.6
0.7Point differential-0.7
59.3Assists59.7
109.6Rebounds105.6
34.9%3-pointers, %36.8%

Team form

Connecticut Sun

Coach: Mike Thibault

Overall LLWLW Net -8.4
Home LWLL Net +3.0
Away LW Net -16.0
Indiana Fever
Overall WLWLL Net +5.1
Home WW Net +14.3
Away WLLL Net -6.0

Team stats

Connecticut Sun Overall · Home/Away Indiana Fever
40.0%H 25.0% · A 50.0%Win %54.6%H 66.7% · A 40.0%
-8.4H 3.0 · A -16.0Point differential5.1H 14.3 · A -6.0
82.7H 86.5 · A 80.2Points per game88.2H 93.0 · A 82.4
86.9H 85.0 · A 88.2Conceded85.6H 85.8 · A 85.4
44.7%H 44.5% · A 44.8%FG, %44.4%H 45.7% · A 42.8%
40.0H 25.0 · A 50.01st half54.6H 50.0 · A 60.0
82.6H 84.4 · A 81.4Pace84.8H 86.7 · A 82.5
101.5H 99.3 · A 103.0Offensive rating102.7H 100.3 · A 105.8
106.6H 104.3 · A 108.2Defensive rating99.8H 97.4 · A 102.7

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Connecticut Sun Total (over) Indiana Fever
82.7 Points per game 88.2
50.0%
O 81.5
81.8%
50.0%
O 82.5
81.8%
50.0%
O 83.5
72.7%
50.0%
O 84.5
63.6%
40.0%
O 85.5srednee
63.6%
40.0%
O 86.5
63.6%
30.0%
O 87.5
54.5%
30.0%
O 88.5
45.5%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Connecticut Sun Total (over) Indiana Fever
10.0%
O 101.5
18.2%
10.0%
O 102.5
9.1%
10.0%
O 103.5
9.1%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Connecticut Sun — / Indiana Fever 43.9

Connecticut Sun Total (over) Indiana Fever
40.0%
O 40.5
54.5%
30.0%
O 41.5
54.5%
30.0%
O 42.5
54.5%
30.0%
O 43.5srednee
45.5%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Connecticut Sun 41.7 / Indiana Fever 43.1

Connecticut Sun Total (over) Indiana Fever
60.0%
O 40.5
54.5%
60.0%
O 41.5
54.5%
60.0%
O 42.5srednee
54.5%
40.0%
O 43.5
54.5%

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Match center
Start 13.06.2026 22:00 UTC
Match center

Connecticut Sun - Indiana Fever

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.15 Fonbet · line only
1 5.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 158.5 1.42 Fonbet · line only
Over 159.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.60 38.5%
1.30 76.9%
2.40 41.7%
2.95 33.9%
2.15 46.5%
2.35 42.6%
2.60 38.5%
2.55 39.2%
1.40 71.4%
1.55 64.5%
1.73 57.8%
1.35 74.1%
1.50 66.7%
2.80 35.7%
1.95 51.3%
2.25 44.4%
1.40 71.4%
1.32 75.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 158.5 1.42 70.4%
Over 159.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 160.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 161.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 162.5 1.60 62.5%
Over 163.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 164.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 165.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 166.5 2.45 40.8%
Over 167.5 2.85 35.1%
Over 168.5 3.35 29.9%
Over 169.5 3.10 32.3%
Over 170.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 171.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 172.5 2.25 44.4%
Over 173.5 2.50 40.0%
Over 174.5 2.20 45.5%
Over 175.5 2.35 42.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Bet365 Bet365 (no latency) Betfair Fonbet
4.20 23.8% 5.25 19.1% 4.60 21.7% 5.00 20.0%
1.25 80.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.27 78.7% 1.15 87.0%
Match center
Connecticut Sun
L
10.06 23:00 UTC WNBA
Connecticut Sun 102:106 Toronto Tempo (Zh)Toronto Tempo (Zh)
0 Wins
1 Losses
102.0 Scored
106.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Indiana Fever
L
31.05 00:00 UTC WNBA
Indiana Fever 84:100 Portland FirePortland Fire
0 Wins
1 Losses
84.0 Scored
100.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage