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WNBA
WNBA USA
10.06.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
10.06.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

Golden State Valkyries (w) - Phoenix Mercury

USA Basketball
Golden State Valkyries (w)
Golden State Valkyries (w)
87 : 81
Finished
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Golden State Valkyries (w) - Phoenix Mercury June 10, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Golden State Valkyries (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.33 / 2 3.85

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 1.2%
1 74.3%
2 25.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Golden State Valkyries (w)
#3GP 138-5
Phoenix Mercury
#7GP 207-13

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

1Wins4
20.0%Win %80.0%
82.4Points per game84.4
101.9Offensive rating91.3
104.4Defensive rating89.1
-2.0Point differential2.0
63.0Assists63.0
93.0Rebounds100.8
34.2%3-pointers, %42.6%

Team form

Golden State Valkyries (w)
Overall LLWLW Net +10.7
Home WLW Net +15.7
Away LLL Net +4.8
Phoenix Mercury
Overall WWLLL Net -6.5
Home LL Net -18.8
Away WWLL Net +2.3

Team stats

Golden State Valkyries (w) Overall · Home/Away Phoenix Mercury
54.6%H 66.7% · A 40.0%Win %33.3%H 20.0% · A 42.9%
10.7H 15.7 · A 4.8Point differential-6.5H -18.8 · A 2.3
85.8H 86.8 · A 84.6Points per game81.7H 86.0 · A 78.6
80.5H 79.0 · A 82.2Conceded84.9H 95.4 · A 77.4
40.2%H 41.3% · A 38.8%FG, %40.7%H 39.0% · A 41.9%
72.7H 66.7 · A 80.01st half58.3H 40.0 · A 71.4
79.8H 79.9 · A 79.6Pace80.8H 83.0 · A 79.2
106.8H 106.4 · A 107.2Offensive rating101.2H 97.6 · A 103.9
100.1H 99.8 · A 100.5Defensive rating105.2H 101.5 · A 108.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Golden State Valkyries (w) Total (over) Phoenix Mercury
85.8 Points per game 81.7
81.8%
O 80.5
41.7%
72.7%
O 81.5
41.7%
63.6%
O 82.5
41.7%
63.6%
O 83.5srednee
41.7%
54.5%
O 84.5
33.3%
54.5%
O 85.5
33.3%
54.5%
O 86.5
33.3%
45.5%
O 87.5
33.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Golden State Valkyries (w) 43.5 / Phoenix Mercury 41.3

Golden State Valkyries (w) Total (over) Phoenix Mercury
81.8%
O 40.5
58.3%
72.7%
O 41.5
58.3%
63.6%
O 42.5srednee
58.3%
63.6%
O 43.5
41.7%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Golden State Valkyries (w) 42.4 / Phoenix Mercury 40.3

Golden State Valkyries (w) Total (over) Phoenix Mercury
54.5%
O 40.5
41.7%
54.5%
O 41.5srednee
41.7%
45.5%
O 42.5
41.7%
45.5%
O 43.5
33.3%

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Match center
Start 10.06.2026 02:00 UTC
Match center

Golden State Valkyries (w) - Phoenix Mercury

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.65 market consensus · line only
1 1.32 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Bet365 Bet365 (no latency) Betfair
1.31 76.3% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2%
3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.85 26.0%
Match center
Golden State Valkyries (w)
W
03.06 02:00 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 95:77 Portland FirePortland Fire
1 Wins
0 Losses
95.0 Scored
77.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Phoenix Mercury
W
06.06 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury 78:72 Portland FirePortland Fire
1 Wins
0 Losses
78.0 Scored
72.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGolden State Valkyries (w) - Phoenix Mercury

Golden State Valkyries (w)
1 matches total
Phoenix Mercury
Golden State Valkyries (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Phoenix Mercury: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Golden State Valkyries (Zh) 95:79 (11.05 00:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 174 goals (95:79, 11.05 00:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

11.05 00:30 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (Zh)
95:79
Phoenix Mercury