PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
WNBA
WNBA USA
04.07.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

Las Vegas Aces - Chicago Sky

USA Basketball
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
98 : 90
Finished
Chicago Sky
Chicago Sky
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Las Vegas Aces (odds1.57) Score 83:77 Under 173.5 (odds2.33) ✗ Handicap H2 +10.5 (odds1.90) ✓ confidence 69% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Las Vegas Aces: forma VPVVV (4-1)
  • • Chicago Sky: forma VPPPP (1-4)
  • • Model backs Las Vegas Aces: probability 69%
  • • Total: Under 173.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 173.5 (odds 2.33)
  • • Handicap F2 +10.5: covers the line (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Las Vegas Aces - Chicago Sky July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Las Vegas Aces. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.57 / 2 2.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 60.5%
2 39.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Las Vegas Aces
#2GP 1914-5
Chicago Sky
#6GP 196-13

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

29Wins19
60.4%Win %39.6%
85.1Points per game81.2
99.2Offensive rating92.4
94.7Defensive rating96.8
3.9Point differential-3.9
62.3Assists59.6
119.6Rebounds114.3
38.2%3-pointers, %32.0%

Team form

Las Vegas Aces

Coach: Becky Hammon

Overall LWWLW Net +8.6
Home WLW Net +0.5
Away LWW Net +14.6
Chicago Sky
Overall LWWLL Net -6.2
Home LWWL Net -1.2
Away LL Net -11.8

Team stats

Las Vegas Aces Overall · Home/Away Chicago Sky
73.7%H 62.5% · A 81.8%Win %31.6%H 30.0% · A 33.3%
8.6H 0.5 · A 14.6Point differential-6.2H -1.2 · A -11.8
90.7H 89.1 · A 91.8Points per game86.4H 90.5 · A 81.9
86.4H 88.9 · A 84.6Conceded89.5H 91.1 · A 87.8
48.7%H 48.4% · A 48.9%FG, %43.1%H 45.8% · A 40.1%
79.0H 75.01st half36.8H 40.0 · A 33.3
82.3H 80.6 · A 83.5Pace84.6H 83.8 · A 85.5
111.3H 113.7 · A 109.7Offensive rating102.3H 102.8 · A 101.7
106.0H 108.3 · A 104.4Defensive rating105.9H 106.5 · A 105.4

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Las Vegas Aces Total (over) Chicago Sky
90.7 Points per game 86.4
68.4%
O 85.5
52.6%
63.2%
O 86.5
47.4%
57.9%
O 87.5
47.4%
57.9%
O 88.5srednee
47.4%
57.9%
O 89.5
42.1%
57.9%
O 90.5
42.1%
52.6%
O 91.5
42.1%
47.4%
O 92.5
36.8%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Las Vegas Aces Total (over) Chicago Sky
0.0%
O 108.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 109.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 110.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 111.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 112.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 113.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 114.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 115.5
5.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Las Vegas Aces 46.9 / Chicago Sky 40.4

Las Vegas Aces Total (over) Chicago Sky
68.4%
O 42.5
42.1%
63.2%
O 43.5srednee
31.6%
63.2%
O 44.5
31.6%
57.9%
O 45.5
26.3%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Las Vegas Aces 43.8 / Chicago Sky 45.6

Las Vegas Aces Total (over) Chicago Sky
47.4%
O 43.5
63.2%
47.4%
O 44.5srednee
63.2%
47.4%
O 45.5
57.9%
36.8%
O 46.5
52.6%

Lineups and availability

Injuries and lineups

Las Vegas Aces
  • A'ja Wilson COut
    Wilson (leg) is out for Friday's game against the Sky.
  • Dana Evans GOut
    Evans (leg) is out for Friday's game against Chicago.
  • Janiah Barker FOut
    Barker (leg) is listed as out for Friday's game versus Chicago.
Chicago Sky
  • DiJonai Carrington G • SurgeryOut
    Carrington (foot) will remain on the inactive list for Sunday's game against the Aces.
  • Rickea Jackson F • SurgeryOut
    The Sky announced Tuesday that Jackson will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn ACL in her left knee during Sunday's 86-79 win over the Lynx.

Injury and player availability data: ESPN. For reference.

Form and head-to-head • WNBA

Team stats

Las Vegas Aces
WWLLWWLWWL
W 6 • D 0 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:88.1 : 88.6
2 place, 33 pts
Chicago Sky
WLLLLLLWWL
W 3 • D 0 • L 7 (10)
Goals average:90.8 : 92.1
6 place, 25 pts
Head-to-head: 15 — Las Vegas Aces 14, draws 0, Chicago Sky 1 (goals 1360:1174)
  • Chicago Sky — Las Vegas Aces2026-06-28 99:107
  • Las Vegas Aces — Chicago Sky2025-09-10 92:61
  • Las Vegas Aces — Chicago Sky2025-09-08 80:66
  • Chicago Sky — Las Vegas Aces2025-08-26 74:79
  • Las Vegas Aces — Chicago Sky2024-09-04 90:71

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Clubs and venues

Team reference

Las Vegas Aces
No data
Chicago Sky
  • Wintrust Arena (Chikago) · 10 387 seats
  • Founded in 2006
  • Coach: Tyler Marsh

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 04.07.2026 02:00 UTC
Match center

Las Vegas Aces - Chicago Sky

Form 0/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.40 Fonbet · line only
1 1.57 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 167.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 168.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.10 47.6%
2.80 35.7%
2.85 35.1%
1.50 66.7%
1.35 74.1%
1.40 71.4%
1.60 62.5%
1.50 66.7%
1.42 70.4%
1.44 69.4%
2.65 37.7%
1.87 53.5%
3.30 30.3%
1.45 69.0%
1.32 75.8%
1.45 69.0%
1.93 51.8%
1.67 59.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 167.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 168.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 169.5 1.47 68.0%
Over 170.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 171.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 172.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 173.5 1.38 72.5%
Over 174.5 1.45 69.0%
Over 175.5 1.30 76.9%
Over 176.5 1.40 71.4%
Over 177.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 178.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 179.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 180.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 181.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 182.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 183.5 1.73 57.8%
Over 184.5 1.95 51.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.57 63.7%
2.40 41.7%
Match center
Chicago Sky
W
25.06 00:00 UTC WNBA
Chicago Sky 101:78 Portland FirePortland Fire
1 Wins
0 Losses
101.0 Scored
78.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLas Vegas Aces - Chicago Sky

Las Vegas Aces
1 matches total
Chicago Sky
Las Vegas Aces: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Chicago Sky: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Las Vegas Aces 107:99 (28.06 20:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 206 goals (107:99, 28.06 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

28.06 20:00 UTC WNBA
Las Vegas Aces
107:99
Chicago Sky