PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
WNBA
WNBA USA
09.05.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction
09.05.2026 19:30 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury

USA Basketball
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
66 : 99
Finished
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury May 9, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Phoenix Mercury. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.26 / 2 1.01

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 78.1%
1 44.4%
2 55.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Las Vegas Aces
#2GP 1914-5
Phoenix Mercury
#7GP 207-13

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

42Wins39
85.2Points on average85.6

Head-to-head matches: 81 · average total 170.8 (points)

Team form

Las Vegas Aces
3-2LWWLW
points for 90.7points against 86.4
Phoenix Mercury
2-3WWLLL
points for 81.1points against 86.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 09.05.2026 19:30 UTC
Match center

Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury

Form 1/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 2.21 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 161.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Over 162.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
1.90 52.6% —
1.91 52.4% —
1.91 52.4% —
1.91 52.4% —
1.95 51.3% —
— 1.83 54.6%
— 1.95 51.3%
— 1.93 51.8%
1.95 51.3% 1.94 51.6%
1.91 52.4% —
1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6%
— 1.95 51.4%
— 1.90 52.6%
— 1.90 52.6%
1.91 52.4% —
1.85 54.1% —

Total

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 162.5 — 1.93 51.8%
Over 166.5 — 1.93 51.8%
Over 167 1.91 52.4% —
Over 167.5 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5%
Over 168.5 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3%
Over 169.5 — 1.93 51.8%
Over 171.5 — 1.88 53.3%
Over 173.5 — 1.89 52.9%
Over 174.5 — 1.86 53.7%
Over 175.5 — 1.87 53.5%
Over 177.5 — 1.91 52.4%
Over 180.5 — 1.91 52.4%
Under 162.5 — 1.87 53.5%
Under 167 1.91 52.4% —
Under 167.5 1.91 52.4% —
Under 168.5 1.91 52.4% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betsson Bwin CashPoint CloudBet Coral
9.50 10.5% 1.26 79.1% 34.00 2.9% 1.01 99.4% 30.00 3.3% 1.01 99.0% 32.72 3.1% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3%
1.03 97.6% 3.99 25.1% 1.01 99.5% 19.00 5.3% 1.04 96.2% 17.00 5.9% 11.30 8.9% 4.40 22.7% 4.00 25.0%
Match center
Las Vegas Aces
W
27.04 00:00 UTC WNBA
Las Vegas Aces 94:78 JAPAN
1 Wins
0 Losses
94.0 Scored
78.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage