WNBA
WNBA International
14.07.2026 04:00 MSK
Finished

WNBA

Minnesota Lynx (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

International Basketball
Minnesota Lynx (w)
Minnesota Lynx (w)
104 : 100
Finished
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Minnesota Lynx (w)53%

1 · Minnesota Lynx (w)53.3%
2 · Phoenix Mercury (w)46.7%

Model estimate: win Minnesota Lynx (w) 53.3%, win Phoenix Mercury (w) 46.7%. Model favourite — Minnesota Lynx (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Minnesota Lynx (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w) 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Minnesota Lynx (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Minnesota Lynx (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.55 / 2 2.40
  • Glicko: Minnesota Lynx (w) 53.3% / Phoenix Mercury (w) 46.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 60.8%
2 39.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.20 ↑ 1.55
Победитель П2 4.55 ↓ 2.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Minnesota Lynx (w)
#1GP 2317-6PPG 90.0OPP 80.9
Phoenix Mercury (w)
#12GP 248-16PPG 82.6OPP 86.6

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

6Wins4
85.0Points on average77.0

Head-to-head matches: 10 · average total 162.0 (points)

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 04:00 MSK
Form 5 matches
Match center

Minnesota Lynx (w) - Phoenix Mercury (w)

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников.

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 104:100
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Minnesota Lynx (w) 60.8% 53.3% market and model agree
Phoenix Mercury (w) 39.2% 46.7%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 53.3% / 46.7% probabilities
Rating 1,469 / 1,183 Minnesota Lynx (w) / Phoenix Mercury (w)
RD 247 / 236 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 974-1,964 / 712-1,655 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.40 Fonbet · weak value +12.0% · model 46.7%
1 1.55 Fonbet · no value · model 53.3%
Total
Over 163.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 164.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -1.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 -10.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -11.5 1.45 69.0%
П2 -12.5 1.45 69.0%
П2 -13.5 1.50 66.7%
П2 -14.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -15.5 1.48 67.6%
П2 -16.5 1.44 69.4%
П2 -17.5 1.41 70.9%
П2 -18.5 1.41 70.9%
П2 -2.5 1.87 53.5%
П2 -3.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -4.5 1.88 53.2%
П2 -5.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -6.5 1.37 73.0%
П2 -7.5 1.32 75.8%
П2 -8.5 1.25 80.0%
П2 -9.5 1.45 69.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 163.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 164.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 165.5 1.52 65.8%
ТБ 166.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 167.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 168.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 169.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 170.5 1.58 63.3%
ТБ 171.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 172.5 1.58 63.3%
ТБ 173.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 174.5 1.45 69.0%
ТБ 175.5 1.35 74.1%
ТБ 176.5 1.45 69.0%
ТБ 177.5 1.42 70.4%
ТБ 178.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 179.5 1.40 71.4%
ТБ 180.5 1.48 67.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 1.55 64.5%
П2 2.40 41.7%
Match center
Minnesota Lynx (w)
W
11.07 20:00 МСК WNBA
Minnesota Lynx (w) 90:85 Nyu-York (zh)
1 Wins
0 Losses
90.0 Scored
85.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Phoenix Mercury (w)
L L
10.07 05:00 МСК WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 89:92 Indiana (zh)
08.07 05:00 МСК WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 66:77 Chikago (zh)Chikago (zh)
0 Wins
2 Losses
77.5 Scored
84.5 Conceded
0% Win percentage