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WNBA
WNBA USA
03.07.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
03.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

New York Liberty - Minnesota Lynx

USA Basketball
New York Liberty
New York Liberty
99 : 86
Finished
Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota Lynx
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Minnesota Lynx (odds5.50) Score 79:81 Under 166.5 (odds2.33) ✗ Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds1.85) ✗ confidence 59% ✗ outcome missed
  • • New York Liberty: forma PVPPV (2-3)
  • • Minnesota Lynx: forma VPVPV (3-2)
  • • Model backs Minnesota Lynx: probability 59%
  • • Total: Under 166.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 166.5 (odds 2.33)
  • • Handicap F2 +1.5: covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction New York Liberty - Minnesota Lynx July 3, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: New York Liberty. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.13 / 2 5.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 6.7%
1 83.0%
2 17.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

New York Liberty
#1GP 2012-8
Minnesota Lynx
#1GP 1915-4

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

18Wins31
36.0%Win %62.0%
74.3Points per game78.4
88.6Offensive rating88.7
93.5Defensive rating84.1
-4.1Point differential4.1
58.8Assists60.3
114.1Rebounds116.3
31.0%3-pointers, %33.8%

Team form

New York Liberty

Coach: Sandra Anne Brondello

Overall WLLWL Net +8.7
Home WL Net +10.4
Away LLWL Net +7.0
Minnesota Lynx
Overall WWLWW Net +22.3
Home LW Net +24.4
Away WWWW Net +20.4

Team stats

New York Liberty Overall · Home/Away Minnesota Lynx
60.0%H 60.0% · A 60.0%Win %79.0%H 66.7% · A 90.0%
8.7H 10.4 · A 7.0Point differential22.3H 24.4 · A 20.4
87.8H 83.4 · A 92.2Points per game90.5H 91.8 · A 89.3
83.5H 78.2 · A 88.7Conceded79.3H 79.6 · A 79.1
45.5%H 42.9% · A 48.0%FG, %48.5%H 49.3% · A 47.8%
70.0H 60.0 · A 80.01st half63.2H 77.8 · A 50.0
81.0H 80.5 · A 81.5Pace82.7H 82.3 · A 83.1
108.8H 109.8 · A 107.9Offensive rating109.6H 110.0 · A 109.2
103.4H 104.3 · A 102.6Defensive rating96.1H 96.4 · A 95.7

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

New York Liberty Total (over) Minnesota Lynx
87.8 Points per game 90.5
60.0%
O 85.5
63.2%
55.0%
O 86.5
63.2%
50.0%
O 87.5
57.9%
45.0%
O 88.5
47.4%
40.0%
O 89.5srednee
47.4%
40.0%
O 90.5
36.8%
40.0%
O 91.5
36.8%
40.0%
O 92.5
36.8%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

New York Liberty Total (over) Minnesota Lynx
10.0%
O 102.5
10.5%
10.0%
O 103.5
10.5%
5.0%
O 104.5
10.5%
5.0%
O 105.5
10.5%
0.0%
O 106.5
10.5%
0.0%
O 107.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 108.5
5.3%
0.0%
O 109.5
5.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: New York Liberty 43.0 / Minnesota Lynx 47.1

New York Liberty Total (over) Minnesota Lynx
35.0%
O 43.5
52.6%
30.0%
O 44.5
52.6%
30.0%
O 45.5srednee
42.1%
30.0%
O 46.5
42.1%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: New York Liberty 44.2 / Minnesota Lynx 43.4

New York Liberty Total (over) Minnesota Lynx
45.0%
O 42.5
57.9%
45.0%
O 43.5srednee
52.6%
45.0%
O 44.5
47.4%
40.0%
O 45.5
42.1%

Lineups and availability

Injuries and lineups

New York Liberty
  • Satou Sabally FOut
    out
Minnesota Lynx
  • Dorka Juhasz F • SprainOut
    Juhasz (foot) is out for Friday's game against the Liberty.
  • Napheesa Collier F • SprainOut
    Collier (ankle) has been cleared to resume practices with the Lynx, the team announced Wednesday.
  • Emma Cechova F • SurgeryOut
    Cechova (knee) was diagnosed with a torn ACL in her right knee and will undergo surgery, Meghan L. Hall of USA Today reports. She will miss the remainder of the season.

Injury and player availability data: ESPN. For reference.

Form and head-to-head • WNBA

Team stats

New York Liberty
WWWWLLWLLW
W 6 • D 0 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:89 : 84.9
1 place, 32 pts
Minnesota Lynx
WWWLWWWLWW
W 8 • D 0 • L 2 (10)
Goals average:90.1 : 79.7
1 place, 36 pts
Head-to-head: 15 — New York Liberty 7, draws 0, Minnesota Lynx 8 (goals 1227:1201)
  • New York Liberty — Minnesota Lynx2025-08-19 85:75
  • Minnesota Lynx — New York Liberty2025-08-16 86:80
  • New York Liberty — Minnesota Lynx2025-08-10 71:83
  • Minnesota Lynx — New York Liberty2025-07-31 100:93
  • New York Liberty — Minnesota Lynx2024-10-21 67:62

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

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Match center
Start 03.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Match center

New York Liberty - Minnesota Lynx

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.50 Fonbet · line only
1 1.13 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 101.5 2.02 Fonbet · line only
Over 140.5 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.02 49.5%
1.90 52.6%
2.90 34.5%
2.60 38.5%
1.90 52.6%
2.00 50.0%
1.40 71.4%
1.58 63.3%
1.38 72.5%
1.35 74.1%
2.50 40.0%
3.10 32.3%
2.65 37.7%
2.30 43.5%
2.02 49.5%
1.83 54.6%
1.60 62.5%
1.45 69.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 101.5 2.02 49.5%
Over 166.5 1.53 65.4%
Over 167.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 168.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 169.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 170.5 1.60 62.5%
Over 171.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 172.5 1.73 57.8%
Over 173.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 174.5 1.48 67.6%
Over 175.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 176.5 1.63 61.4%
Over 177.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 178.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 179.5 1.30 76.9%
Over 180.5 1.40 71.4%
Over 181.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 182.5 1.65 60.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.13 88.5%
5.50 18.2%