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WNBA
WNBA USA
14.06.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
14.06.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

Phoenix Mercury - Los Angeles Sparks

USA Basketball
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
102 : 111
Finished
Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury - Los Angeles Sparks June 14, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Los Angeles Sparks. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.06 / 2 1.91

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 0.9%
1 48.1%
2 51.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Phoenix Mercury
#7GP 207-13
Los Angeles Sparks
#5GP 137-6

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

39Wins37
51.3%Win %48.7%
82.1Points per game82.9
86.5Offensive rating89.3
87.4Defensive rating88.4
-0.9Point differential0.9
61.1Assists60.2
108.1Rebounds104.8
34.8%3-pointers, %35.5%

Team form

Phoenix Mercury
Overall LWWLL Net -6.9
Home LL Net -18.8
Away LWWL Net +0.5
Los Angeles Sparks
Overall WLLLW Net -4.7
Home WLLL Net -12.3
Away LW Net +8.5

Team stats

Phoenix Mercury Overall · Home/Away Los Angeles Sparks
30.8%H 20.0% · A 37.5%Win %45.5%H 28.6% · A 75.0%
-6.9H -18.8 · A 0.5Point differential-4.7H -12.3 · A 8.5
81.6H 86.0 · A 78.9Points per game88.7H 86.4 · A 92.8
85.1H 95.4 · A 78.6Conceded91.1H 92.6 · A 88.5
41.1%H 39.0% · A 42.4%FG, %47.1%H 46.4% · A 48.3%
53.9H 40.0 · A 62.51st half36.4H 28.6 · A 50.0
80.4H 83.0 · A 78.8Pace83.1H 82.5 · A 84.1
101.6H 97.5 · A 104.3Offensive rating106.4H 106.9 · A 105.6
105.9H 101.6 · A 108.7Defensive rating109.3H 109.8 · A 108.4

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Phoenix Mercury Total (over) Los Angeles Sparks
81.6 Points per game 88.7
38.5%
O 81.5
63.6%
38.5%
O 82.5
63.6%
38.5%
O 83.5
63.6%
30.8%
O 84.5
63.6%
30.8%
O 85.5srednee
63.6%
30.8%
O 86.5
63.6%
30.8%
O 87.5
63.6%
23.1%
O 88.5
63.6%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Phoenix Mercury 40.6 / Los Angeles Sparks 42.8

Phoenix Mercury Total (over) Los Angeles Sparks
53.8%
O 40.5
63.6%
53.8%
O 41.5srednee
45.5%
53.8%
O 42.5
36.4%
38.5%
O 43.5
36.4%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Phoenix Mercury 41.0 / Los Angeles Sparks 45.9

Phoenix Mercury Total (over) Los Angeles Sparks
46.2%
O 41.5
63.6%
46.2%
O 42.5
63.6%
38.5%
O 43.5srednee
63.6%
38.5%
O 44.5
54.5%

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Match center
Start 14.06.2026 02:00 UTC
Match center

Phoenix Mercury - Los Angeles Sparks

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.91 market consensus · line only
1 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betfair
2.06 48.5%
1.91 52.4%
Match center
Phoenix Mercury
W
06.06 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury 78:72 Portland FirePortland Fire
1 Wins
0 Losses
78.0 Scored
72.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Los Angeles Sparks
W
07.06 23:00 UTC WNBA
Los Angeles Sparks 89:72 Portland FirePortland Fire
1 Wins
0 Losses
89.0 Scored
72.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury - Los Angeles Sparks

Phoenix Mercury
1 matches total
Los Angeles Sparks
Phoenix Mercury: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Los Angeles Sparks: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Los Angeles Sparks 88:97 (22.05 02:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 185 goals (88:97, 22.05 02:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

22.05 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury
88:97
Los Angeles Sparks