Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
WNBA
WNBA International
30.07.2026 02:00 UTC
Not started

WNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w)

International Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
- : -
Not started
Golden State Valkyries (w)
Golden State Valkyries (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Golden State Valkyries (w)58%

1 · Phoenix Mercury (w)41.5%
market34%
2 · Golden State Valkyries (w) ✓ Pick58.5%
market66%

Model estimate: win Phoenix Mercury (w) 41.5%, win Golden State Valkyries (w) 58.5%. Model favourite — Golden State Valkyries (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Golden State Valkyries (w) (odds1.43) Score 79:81 Under 160.5 (odds1.58) Handicap H1 +5.5 (odds1.90) confidence 58%
  • Finiks (zh): forma VPPPP (1-4)
  • Golden Steyt (zh): forma PVVVV (4-1)
  • Model backs Golden Steyt (zh): probability 58% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.43)
  • no edge over the line (-11 pp) — informational only
  • Total: Under 160.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • at line 160.5 (odds 1.58)
  • Handicap F1 +5.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w) July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Golden State Valkyries (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.80 / 2 1.44

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 34.0%
2 ✓ Pick 66.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 2.80 → 2.80
Pobeditel P2 1.44 → 1.44

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 30.07.2026 02:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Golden State Valkyries (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Phoenix Mercury (w) 34.0% 41.5%
Golden State Valkyries (w) 66.0% 58.5% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 41.5% / 58.5% probabilities
Rating 1,348 / 1,762 Phoenix Mercury (w) / Golden State Valkyries (w)
RD 218 / 221 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 912-1,784 / 1,321-2,203 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.44 Fonbet · no value · model 58.5%
1 2.80 Fonbet · no value · model 41.5%
Total
Over 149.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 150.5 1.56 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
2.37 42.2%
2.23 44.8%
2.07 48.3%
1.96 51.0%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.75 57.1%
3.05 32.8%
1.51 66.2%
1.58 63.3%
1.67 59.9%
1.75 57.1%
1.90 52.6%
1.96 51.0%
2.07 48.3%
2.37 42.2%
1.33 75.2%
1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
Over 149.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 150.5 1.56 64.1%
Over 151.5 1.62 61.7%
Over 152.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 153.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 154.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 155.5 1.93 51.8% 1.88 53.2%
Over 156.5 1.96 51.0%
Over 157.5 1.90 52.6% 2.07 48.3%
Over 158.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 159.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 160.5 2.23 44.8%
Over 161.5 2.33 42.9%
Over 162.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 155.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 157.5 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7% 3.09 32.4%
1.39 71.9% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-0-3
2026-06-10 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 81:87 Golden Steyt Valkiriz (Zh)
2026-05-11 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 79:95 Golden Steyt Valkiriz (Zh)
2025-08-23 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 81:72 Golden Steyt Valkiriz (Zh)
2025-08-20 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 98:91 Golden Steyt Valkiriz (Zh)
2025-07-15 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 78:77 Golden Steyt Valkiriz (Zh)
Source: ruscore
Phoenix Mercury (w)
W L L L L
22.07 19:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles (zh)Los-Andzheles (zh)
18.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 81:96 Konnektikut (zh)
14.07 01:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 100:104 Minnesota (zh)
10.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 89:92 Indiana (zh)
08.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 66:77 Chikago (zh)Chikago (zh)
1 Wins
4 Losses
84.4 Scored
90.2 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Golden State Valkyries (w)
L W W W W
21.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 82:90 Vashington (zh)Vashington (zh)
19.07 00:30 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 74:69 Vashington (zh)Vashington (zh)
16.07 00:00 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 88:75 Indiana (zh)
10.07 23:30 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 79:64 Konnektikut (zh)
08.07 23:00 UTC WNBA
Golden State Valkyries (w) 83:73 Toronto (zh)Toronto (zh)
4 Wins
1 Losses
81.2 Scored
74.2 Conceded
80% Win percentage