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WNBA
WNBA International
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Not started

WNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) - New York Liberty (w)

International Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
- : -
Not started
New York Liberty (w)
New York Liberty (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Phoenix Mercury (w)57%

1 · Phoenix Mercury (w) ✓ Pick57.5%
2 · New York Liberty (w)42.5%

Model estimate: win Phoenix Mercury (w) 57.5%, win New York Liberty (w) 42.5%. Model favourite — Phoenix Mercury (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Phoenix Mercury (w) (odds2.05) Score 81:79 Under 170.5 (odds2.33) Handicap H1 +1.5 (odds1.95) confidence 58%
  • Finiks (zh): forma VVPPP (2-3)
  • Nyu-York (zh): forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • Model backs Finiks (zh): probability 58% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.05)
  • edge over the line +9 pp — value pick
  • Total: Under 170.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • at line 170.5 (odds 2.33)
  • Handicap F1 +1.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.95).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - New York Liberty (w) August 1, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: New York Liberty (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.05 / 2 1.77

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 ✓ Pick 46.3%
2 53.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 2.25 → 2.25
Pobeditel P2 1.65 → 1.65

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - New York Liberty (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Phoenix Mercury (w) 42.3% 57.5% Glicko contrarian
New York Liberty (w) 57.7% 42.5% market favourite

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 57.5% / 42.5% probabilities
Rating 1,571 / 1,421 Phoenix Mercury (w) / New York Liberty (w)
RD 204 / 162 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,162-1,979 / 1,097-1,745 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.77 Fonbet · no value · model 42.5%
1 2.05 Fonbet · value +17.9% · model 57.5%
Total
Over 170.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 171.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
1.95 51.3%
2.30 43.5%
2.50 40.0%
2.70 37.0%
2.90 34.5%
3.10 32.3%
1.85 54.1%
1.90 52.6%
2.00 50.0%
2.00 50.0%
2.30 43.5%
2.30 43.5%
1.85 54.1% 1.55 64.5%
1.47 68.0%
1.41 70.9%
1.36 73.5%
1.32 75.8%

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
Over 170.5 1.53 65.4%
Over 171.5 1.53 65.4%
Over 172.5 1.58 63.3%
Over 173.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 174.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.77 56.5%
Over 176.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 177.5 1.94 51.6%
Over 178.5 2.03 49.3%
Over 179.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 180.5 2.23 44.8%
Over 181.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 170.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 171.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 172.5 2.23 44.8%
Under 173.5 2.10 47.6%
Under 175.5 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.06 48.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.08 48.1%
1.76 56.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.79 55.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 5-0-5
2026-05-29 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 68:75 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
2026-05-27 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 74:84 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
2025-09-20 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 79:73 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
2025-09-18 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 86:60 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
2025-09-14 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 69:76 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
Source: ruscore
Phoenix Mercury (w)
W W L L L
30.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 91:89 Golden Steyt (zh)Golden Steyt (zh)
22.07 19:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles (zh)Los-Andzheles (zh)
18.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 81:96 Konnektikut (zh)
14.07 01:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 100:104 Minnesota (zh)
10.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 89:92 Indiana (zh)
2 Wins
3 Losses
89.4 Scored
92.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
New York Liberty (w)
L W W W L
31.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
New York Liberty (w) 71:78 Las Vegas (zh)
29.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
New York Liberty (w) 113:109 Los-Andzheles (zh)Los-Andzheles (zh)
22.07 23:00 UTC WNBA
New York Liberty (w) 95:94 Chikago (zh)Chikago (zh)
21.07 00:00 UTC WNBA
New York Liberty (w) 99:98 Dallas (zh)
19.07 00:00 UTC WNBA
New York Liberty (w) 88:108 Indiana (zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
93.2 Scored
97.4 Conceded
60% Win percentage