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WNBA
WNBA USA
10.06.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
10.06.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

USA

Toronto (w) - Connecticut Sun

USA Basketball
Toronto (w)
Toronto (w)
106 : 102
Finished
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut Sun

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toronto (w) - Connecticut Sun June 10, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Connecticut Sun. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.75 / 2 1.45

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 34.5%
2 65.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Toronto (w)
#4GP 147-7
Connecticut Sun
#7GP 194-15

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

0Wins1
0.0%Win %100.0%
78.0Points per game83.0
62.3Offensive rating73.2
66.3Defensive rating68.8
-5.0Point differential5.0
51.0Assists57.0
63.0Rebounds105.0
35.0%3-pointers, %25.0%

Team form

Toronto (w)
Overall WLWWL Net +1.3
Home WWL Net +11.6
Away LWL Net -7.3
Connecticut Sun
Overall LLLWL Net -23.9
Home LWL Net -19.6
Away LLL Net -26.5

Team stats

Toronto (w) Overall · Home/Away Connecticut Sun
54.6%H 60.0% · A 50.0%Win %15.4%H 20.0% · A 12.5%
1.3H 11.6 · A -7.3Point differential-23.9H -19.6 · A -26.5
88.5H 81.8 · A 94.0Points per game76.2H 81.8 · A 72.8
87.8H 76.0 · A 97.7Conceded88.2H 91.6 · A 86.0
42.6%H 39.6% · A 45.0%FG, %41.2%H 40.2% · A 41.8%
45.5H 40.0 · A 50.01st half38.5H 40.0 · A 37.5
82.2H 82.8 · A 81.7Pace82.3H 85.0 · A 80.6
107.6H 107.2 · A 107.9Offensive rating92.7H 88.3 · A 95.6
106.8H 106.4 · A 107.1Defensive rating107.1H 102.1 · A 110.5

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Toronto (w) Total (over) Connecticut Sun
88.5 Points per game 76.2
81.8%
O 78.5
53.8%
81.8%
O 79.5
53.8%
72.7%
O 80.5
30.8%
72.7%
O 81.5
30.8%
63.6%
O 82.5srednee
15.4%
63.6%
O 83.5
15.4%
63.6%
O 84.5
7.7%
54.5%
O 85.5
7.7%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Toronto (w) Total (over) Connecticut Sun
18.2%
O 102.5
0.0%
18.2%
O 103.5
0.0%
18.2%
O 104.5
0.0%
18.2%
O 105.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 106.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 107.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 108.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 109.5
0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Toronto (w) 41.5 / Connecticut Sun —

Toronto (w) Total (over) Connecticut Sun
54.5%
O 40.5
46.2%
54.5%
O 41.5srednee
46.2%
54.5%
O 42.5
38.5%
54.5%
O 43.5
38.5%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Toronto (w) 47.0 / Connecticut Sun —

Toronto (w) Total (over) Connecticut Sun
63.6%
O 40.5
23.1%
63.6%
O 41.5
23.1%
54.5%
O 42.5
23.1%
54.5%
O 43.5srednee
23.1%

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Match center
Start 10.06.2026 23:00 UTC
Match center

Toronto (w) - Connecticut Sun

Form 1/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.45 Fonbet · line only
1 2.75 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 161.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 162.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.02 49.5%
2.30 43.5%
2.50 40.0%
2.00 50.0%
2.25 44.4%
1.37 73.0%
1.50 66.7%
1.52 65.8%
1.57 63.7%
1.47 68.0%
1.27 78.7%
1.42 70.4%
1.82 55.0%
1.25 80.0%
1.45 69.0%
1.55 64.5%
1.47 68.0%
1.52 65.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 161.5 1.53 65.4%
Over 162.5 1.58 63.3%
Over 163.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 164.5 1.60 62.5%
Over 165.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 166.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 167.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 168.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 169.5 1.58 63.3%
Over 170.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 171.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 172.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 173.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 174.5 1.60 62.5%
Over 175.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 176.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 177.5 1.88 53.2%
Over 178.5 1.97 50.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Bet365 Bet365 (no latency) Betfair Fonbet
1.26 79.4% 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5% 2.75 36.4%
4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 1.45 69.0%
Match center
Toronto (w)
L
23.05 22:00 UTC WNBA
Toronto (w) 80:99 Portland FirePortland Fire
0 Wins
1 Losses
80.0 Scored
99.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage