PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
2. Bundesliga
2. Bundesliga Germany
04.04.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 18:30 UTC
Finished

2. Bundesliga

Germany

Dynamo Dresden - Hertha BSC

Germany Football
Stadium Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion
Capacity 32 066
Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
0 : 1
Finished
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Hertha BSC — 42%

1 · Dynamo Dresden32.6%
X · draw25.2%
2 · Hertha BSC42.1%

Model estimate: win Dynamo Dresden 32.6%, draw 25.2%, win Hertha BSC 42.1%. Model favourite — Hertha BSC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Dynamo Dresden - Hertha BSC April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hertha BSC.

Strongest: Hertha BSC - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.53 / X 3.56 / 2 2.50
  • 1X2 market: Dynamo Dresden 36.8% / X 26.1% / Hertha BSC 37.1%
  • Glicko: Dynamo Dresden 32.6% / X 25.2% / Hertha BSC 42.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 17.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6%
1 36.7%
X 26.1%
2 37.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.6%
Over 2.5 59.4%
Under 2.5 40.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 40.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 04.04.2026 18:30 UTC
Stadium Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion (Dresden)
Capacity 32,066

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Hertha BSC 42%
💹 Market Hertha BSC 3711%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Dynamo Dresden - Hertha BSC

Dynamo Dresden: Win 2.62 Dynamo Dresden: Draw 3.50 Hertha BSC Win: 2.55 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Dynamo Dresden bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Dynamo Dresden menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualn…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 15
Statistics 26
Lineups 3
min Event Player Team
26' 26' Yellow Card | K. Amoako Dynamo Dresden
27' 27' Yellow Card | R. Wagner Dynamo Dresden
40' 40' Yellow Card | T. Leistner Stijn Paardekooper Hertha BSC
61' 61' Yellow Card | F. Reese Hertha BSC
64' 64' Substitution 1 | J. Ceka | assist/sub out: J. Lemmer Dynamo Dresden
66' 66' Red Card | J. Brekalo Jonathan Clauss Hertha BSC
68' 68' Substitution 4 | K. Sessa | assist/sub out: K. Eichhorn Hertha BSC
68' 68' Substitution 5 | M. Karbownik | assist/sub out: M. Dárdai Hertha BSC
Metric Dynamo Dresden Hertha BSC SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.91 0.91 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 5 4 final
Shots on target 5 5 final
Udary vsego 13 10 final
Fouls soversheno 11 14 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Dynamo Dresden #7 J. Brekalo
Hertha BSC #20 B. Bobzien, #39 T. Keller
Player Team Metric SStats
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden football.player.assists 0
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Dribling popytki 2
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Dribling uspeshno 4
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Fouls soversheno 1
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Fouls na igroke 1
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Seyvy 0
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden football.player.minutes_played 66
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Tochnost pasov % 2
J. Brekalo Dynamo Dresden Klyuchevye pasy 20
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Dynamo Dresden 35.1% 32.6%
Draw 26.4% 25.2% draw risk
Hertha BSC 38.5% 42.1% market and model agree
xG - 1.29 : 1.50
Total 2.5 Over 17.3% - Under 82.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 32.6% / 25.2% / 42.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,480 / 1,548 Dynamo Dresden / Hertha BSC
RD 78 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 42.1%
X 3.56 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.53 market consensus · no value · model 32.6%
Double chance
X2 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 67.4%
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 57.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.44 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.93 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 17.3%
Under 2.5 2.31 market consensus · weak value +91.1% · model 82.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.49 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.48 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.55 39.2% 2.38 42.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8%
X 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.54 28.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.55 28.2% 3.80 26.3%
2.55 39.2% 2.53 39.5% 2.52 39.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.50 40.0% 2.44 41.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.46 40.7% 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.54 64.9% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.49 67.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — —
Over 2.5 1.57 63.7% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.91 52.4% —
Over 3.0 — 2.05 48.8% —
Over 3.5 2.40 41.7% — —
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 5.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.50 22.2% — —
Under 2.5 2.35 42.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.99 50.3% —
Under 3.0 — 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.55 64.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Dynamo Dresden
Founded 1953
Hertha BSC
Founded 1892
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.