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2. Bundesliga
2. Bundesliga Germany
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished

2. Bundesliga

Germany

FC Schalke 04 - Karlsruher SC

Germany Football
Stadium Veltins Arena
Capacity 62 271
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1 : 0
Finished
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 FC Schalke 04 — 59%

1 · FC Schalke 04 ✓ Pick59.5%
market64%
X · draw22.9%
market21%
2 · Karlsruher SC17.7%
market15%

Model estimate: win FC Schalke 04 59.5%, draw 22.9%, win Karlsruher SC 17.7%. Model favourite — FC Schalke 04.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Schalke 04 - Karlsruher SC April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Schalke 04.

Strongest: FC Schalke 04 - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.46 / X 4.42 / 2 6.10
  • 1X2 market: FC Schalke 04 63.7% / X 21.1% / Karlsruher SC 15.3%
  • Glicko: FC Schalke 04 59.5% / X 22.9% / Karlsruher SC 17.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 ✓ Pick 63.7%
X 21.0%
2 15.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5 59.5%
Under 2.5 40.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 62.2%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Stadium Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen)
Capacity 62,271

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model FC Schalke 04 59%
💹 Market FC Schalke 04 6367%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FC Schalke 04 - Karlsruher SC

FC Schalke 04: Win 1.48 FC Schalke 04: Draw 4.50 Karlsruher SC Win: 6.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.60 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov FC Schalke 04 bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov FC Schalke 04 menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualny…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 5
min Event Player Team
17' 17' Yellow Card | A. Muller Karlsruher SC
20' 20' Yellow Card FC Schalke 04
64' 64' Substitution 2 | D. Ljubicic | assist/sub out: C. Gomis Youssouf Fofana FC Schalke 04
64' 64' Substitution 2 | D. Burnic | assist/sub out: S. Jung Karlsruher SC
64' 64' Substitution 3 | L. Ben Farhat | assist/sub out: S. Fukuda Karlsruher SC
68' 68' Yellow Card FC Schalke 04
72' 72' Normal Goal | K. Karaman | assist/sub out: M. N'Diaye FC Schalke 04
76' 76' Substitution 4 | C. Kobald | assist/sub out: P. Forster Karlsruher SC
Metric FC Schalke 04 Karlsruher SC SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.8 0.15 final
Zablokirovannye udary 11 1 final
Shots off target 8 2 final
Shots on target 5 1 final
Udary vsego 24 4 final
Fouls soversheno 13 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 3 4 final
FC Schalke 04 #16 M. N'Diaye, #24 A. Aouchiche
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 football.player.assists 0
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Dribling popytki 1
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Dribling uspeshno 6
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Conceded golov 1
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Seyvy 0
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 football.player.minutes_played 85
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Tochnost pasov % 6
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Klyuchevye pasy 51
A. Aouchiche FC Schalke 04 Pasy vsego 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Schalke 04 64.3% 59.5% market and model agree
Draw 21.1% 22.9% draw risk
Karlsruher SC 14.6% 17.7%
xG - 1.80 : 0.86
Total 2.5 Over 82.3% - Under 17.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 59.5% / 22.9% / 17.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,576 / 1,486 FC Schalke 04 / Karlsruher SC
RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.10 market consensus · no value · model 17.7%
X 4.42 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.46 market consensus · no value · model 59.5%
Double chance
X2 2.62 market consensus · no value · model 40.5%
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 77.2%
1X 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 82.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.66 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.06 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.90 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.57 market consensus · value +29.2% · model 82.3%
Under 2.5 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 17.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.46 68.5% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%
X 4.33 23.1% 4.55 22.0% 4.50 22.2% 4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 4.50 22.2%
6.60 15.2% 5.50 18.2% 6.25 16.0% 6.00 16.7% 6.30 15.9% 6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.00 50.0% 2.08 48.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.02 49.5% 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.69 59.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.69 59.2% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 2.65 37.7% 2.62 38.2% 2.62 38.2% 2.67 37.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8%
home_draw 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.14 87.7% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.75 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 2.5 1.60 62.5% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.99 50.3% —
Over 3.5 2.45 40.8% — —
Over 4.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Over 5.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.30 43.5% — —
Under 3.0 — 1.91 52.4% —
Under 3.5 1.53 65.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3% — —
Under 5.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
FC Schalke 04
Founded 1904
Karlsruher SC
Founded 1898
Match center
FC Schalke 04

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Karlsruher SC
ES E. Sihlaroğlu Jumpers knee
FC Schalke 04 Founded: 1904
Karlsruher SC Founded: 1898
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.