PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
2. Bundesliga
2. Bundesliga Germany
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished

2. Bundesliga

Germany

Holstein Kiel - Preußen Münster

Germany Football
Stadium Holstein-Stadion
Capacity 15 034
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
0 : 0
Finished
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Holstein Kiel — 49%

1 · Holstein Kiel48.7%
X · draw25.1%
2 · Preußen Münster26.3%

Model estimate: win Holstein Kiel 48.7%, draw 25.1%, win Preußen Münster 26.3%. Model favourite — Holstein Kiel.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Holstein Kiel - Preußen Münster April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Holstein Kiel.

Strongest: Holstein Kiel - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.90 / X 3.64 / 2 3.65
  • 1X2 market: Holstein Kiel 48.9% / X 25.6% / Preußen Münster 25.5%
  • Glicko: Holstein Kiel 48.7% / X 25.1% / Preußen Münster 26.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 83.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 49.0%
X 25.6%
2 25.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 54.9%
Under 2.5 45.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 49.4%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Stadium Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)
Capacity 15,034

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Holstein Kiel 49%
💹 Market Holstein Kiel 4894%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Holstein Kiel - Preußen Münster

Holstein Kiel: Win 1.90 Holstein Kiel: Draw 3.80 Preußen Münster Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Holstein Kiel bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Holstein Kiel menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individual…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 2
min Event Player Team
1' 1' Yellow Card Holstein Kiel
16' 16' Substitution 1 | O. Batista Meier | assist/sub out: L. Lokotsch Preußen Münster
28' 28' Yellow Card | K. Davidsen Holstein Kiel
40' 40' Yellow Card | L. Lokotsch Preußen Münster
47' 47' Yellow Card Preußen Münster
65' 65' Substitution 6 | M. Schulz | assist/sub out: Y. Bouchama Preußen Münster
65' 65' Substitution 5 | J. Mees | assist/sub out: M. Kirkeskov Preußen Münster
69' 69' Substitution 5 | K. Davidsen | assist/sub out: S. Schwab Holstein Kiel
Metric Holstein Kiel Preußen Münster SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.71 0.96 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 0 final
Shots off target 10 5 final
Shots on target 0 1 final
Udary vsego 13 6 final
Fouls soversheno 15 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final
Offsides 2 2 final
Holstein Kiel #20 A. Kaprálik, #28 J. Meffert
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel football.player.assists 0
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Dribling popytki 7
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Dribling uspeshno 6
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Edinoborstva vyigrano 14
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Fouls soversheno 5
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Fouls na igroke 2
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Seyvy 0
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Klyuchevye pasy 30
A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel Reyting (staryy) 6.9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Holstein Kiel 49.8% 48.7% market and model agree
Draw 25.4% 25.1% draw risk
Preußen Münster 24.8% 26.3%
xG - 1.58 : 1.09
Total 2.5 Over 83.1% - Under 16.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 48.7% / 25.1% / 26.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,460 / 1,419 Holstein Kiel / Preußen Münster
RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.65 market consensus · no value · model 26.3%
X 3.64 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 48.7%
Double chance
X2 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 51.3%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 75.0%
1X 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.47 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.71 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · value +43.7% · model 83.1%
Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · no value · model 16.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.16 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.63 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.66 27.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3%
3.65 27.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.76 26.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.19 45.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.16 46.3% 2.15 46.5%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.69 59.2% 1.60 62.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.17 85.5%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% 1.81 55.3% —
Over 2.75 — 2.01 49.8% —
Over 3.5 2.75 36.4% — —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% 2.09 47.9% —
Under 2.75 — 1.89 52.9% —
Under 3.5 1.44 69.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.17 85.5% — —
Match center
Holstein Kiel
Founded 1900
Preußen Münster
Founded 1906
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.