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2. Bundesliga
2. Bundesliga Germany
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished

2. Bundesliga

Germany

SpVgg Greuther Fürth - SC Paderborn 07

Germany Football
Stadium Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
Capacity 18 000
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0 : 2
Finished
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 SC Paderborn 07 — 55%

1 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth21.3%
X · draw23.9%
2 · SC Paderborn 0754.8%

Model estimate: win SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21.3%, draw 23.9%, win SC Paderborn 07 54.8%. Model favourite — SC Paderborn 07.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SpVgg Greuther Fürth - SC Paderborn 07 April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Paderborn 07.

Strongest: SC Paderborn 07 - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.74 / X 3.72 / 2 1.86
  • 1X2 market: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24.9% / X 25.0% / SC Paderborn 07 50.1%
  • Glicko: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21.3% / X 23.9% / SC Paderborn 07 54.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.4%
1 24.9%
X 25.0%
2 50.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.9%
Over 2.5 60.4%
Under 2.5 39.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.0%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Stadium Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer (Fürth)
Capacity 18,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model SC Paderborn 07 55%
💹 Market SC Paderborn 07 5006%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

SpVgg Greuther Fürth - SC Paderborn 07

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Win 4.10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Draw 3.80 SC Paderborn 07 Win: 1.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.35 Individualnyy total golov SpVgg Greuther Fürth bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov SpVgg Greuther Fürth …

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 2
min Event Player Team
51' 51' Normal Goal | S. Marino SC Paderborn 07
64' 64' Substitution 3 | J. Dehm | assist/sub out: L. Reich SpVgg Greuther Fürth
64' 64' Substitution 4 | S. Ltaief | assist/sub out: A. Keller SpVgg Greuther Fürth
64' 64' Substitution 2 | S. Klaas | assist/sub out: S. Tigges SC Paderborn 07
65' 65' Substitution 3 | R. Muller | assist/sub out: F. Bilbija SC Paderborn 07
67' 67' Yellow Card | P. Ziereis SpVgg Greuther Fürth
68' 68' Yellow Card | M. Hansen SC Paderborn 07
69' 69' Substitution 4 | M. Hansen | assist/sub out: S. Castaneda SC Paderborn 07
Metric SpVgg Greuther Fürth SC Paderborn 07 SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.9 1.32 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 3 final
Shots off target 7 8 final
Shots on target 4 4 final
Udary vsego 16 15 final
Fouls soversheno 10 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 5 1 final
Player Team Metric SStats
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth football.player.assists 0
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth Dribling uspeshno 1
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth Seyvy 0
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth football.player.minutes_played 9
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth Klyuchevye pasy 3
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth Reyting (staryy) 6.5
Aiman Dardari SpVgg Greuther Fürth Otbory vsego 1
D. Arifi SpVgg Greuther Fürth Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24.4% 21.3%
Draw 24.3% 23.9% draw risk
SC Paderborn 07 51.4% 54.8% market and model agree
xG - 0.97 : 1.71
Total 2.5 Over 82.0% - Under 18.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 21.3% / 23.9% / 54.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,437 / 1,571 SpVgg Greuther Fürth / SC Paderborn 07
RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 54.8%
X 3.72 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.74 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
Double chance
X2 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 76.1%
1X 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 45.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.06 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · value +27.1% · model 82.0%
Under 2.5 2.36 market consensus · no value · model 18.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.43 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.50 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.75 26.7% 3.60 27.8% 3.84 26.0% 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 3.60 27.8%
X 3.80 26.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0%
1.85 54.1% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.40 41.7% 2.55 39.2% 2.42 41.3% 2.38 42.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.03 97.1% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.95 51.3% —
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6% — —
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 5.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 11.00 9.1% — —
Under 1.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.40 41.7% — —
Under 3.0 — 1.95 51.3% —
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Founded 1903
SC Paderborn 07
Founded 1907
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.