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3. Liga
3. Liga Germany
04.04.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished

3. Liga

Germany

Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim II

Germany Football
Stadium Erzgebirgsstadion
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
3 : 5
Finished
Hoffenheim II
Hoffenheim II

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim II April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Erzgebirge Aue.

Line favourite market consensus: Erzgebirge Aue. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.40 / X 3.56 / 2 2.46
  • 1X2 market: Erzgebirge Aue 37.8% / X 25.5% / Hoffenheim II 36.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 62.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.4%
1 37.7%
X 25.4%
2 36.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 9.6%
Over 2.5 62.5%
Under 2.5 37.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 12:00 UTC
Match center

Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim II

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.46 market consensus · line only
X 3.56 market consensus · line only
1 2.40 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.49 market consensus · line only
12 1.22 market consensus · line only
1X 1.47 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.36 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.56 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.40 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
2.50 40.0% 2.39 41.8% 2.52 39.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.39 41.8%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.52 28.4% 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.25 30.8% 3.52 28.4%
2.50 40.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.52 39.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.25 44.4% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Betano BetVictor Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.65 37.7% 2.66 37.6% 2.65 37.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.50 40.0%
yes 1.40 71.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.42 70.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.41 70.9% 1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.45 69.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0% 1.08 92.6% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.43 69.9% 1.55 64.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.43 69.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5% 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.16 86.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%
Over 2.75 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 3.5 2.25 44.4% —
Over 4.5 3.75 26.7% —
Over 5.5 7.00 14.3% —
Under 1.5 5.00 20.0% —
Under 2.5 2.55 39.2% —
Under 3.5 1.62 61.7% —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 5.5 1.09 91.7% —