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A-League
A-League Australia
05.04.2026 05:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 05:00 UTC
Finished

A-League

Australia

Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix

Australia Football
Stadium AAMI Park
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1
Finished
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Melbourne Victory — 61%

1 · Melbourne Victory ✓ Pick60.5%
market65%
X · draw21.7%
market21%
2 · Wellington Phoenix17.8%
market15%

Model estimate: win Melbourne Victory 60.5%, draw 21.7%, win Wellington Phoenix 17.8%. Model favourite — Melbourne Victory.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Melbourne Victory.

Strongest: Melbourne Victory - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.44 / X 4.52 / 2 6.38
  • 1X2 market: Melbourne Victory 64.7% / X 20.7% / Wellington Phoenix 14.7%
  • Glicko: Melbourne Victory 60.5% / X 21.7% / Wellington Phoenix 17.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 20.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.2%
1 ✓ Pick 64.8%
X 20.6%
2 14.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.4%
Over 2.5 63.3%
Under 2.5 36.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 63.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 05:00 UTC
Stadium AAMI Park (Melbourne)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Melbourne Victory 61%
💹 Market Melbourne Victory 6469%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory: Win 1.50 Melbourne Victory: Draw 4.75 Wellington Phoenix Win: 5.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.53 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Melbourne Victory bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Melbourne Victory menshe 1.…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
22' 22' Substitution 1 | S. Esposito | assist/sub out: J. Davidson Melbourne Victory
34' 34' Yellow Card | D. Genreau Melbourne Victory
46' 46' Substitution 2 | N. Vergos | assist/sub out: C. Nduka Melbourne Victory
54' 54' Yellow Card | N. Velupillay Melbourne Victory
61' 61' Substitution 4 | D. Edwards | assist/sub out: L. Kelly-Heald Wellington Phoenix
68' 68' Substitution 5 | D. Genreau | assist/sub out: L. D'Arrigo Melbourne Victory
68' 68' Substitution 6 | N. Velupillay | assist/sub out: M. Grimaldi Melbourne Victory
68' 68' Substitution 7 | K. Jelacic | assist/sub out: R. Piscopo Melbourne Victory
Metric Melbourne Victory Wellington Phoenix SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.25 1.52 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final
Shots off target 3 7 final
Shots on target 3 3 final
Udary vsego 10 14 final
Fouls soversheno 14 13 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Melbourne Victory 65.5% 60.5% market and model agree
Draw 20.4% 21.7% draw risk
Wellington Phoenix 14.1% 17.8%
xG - 1.93 : 0.94
Total 2.5 Over 20.9% - Under 79.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.5% / 21.7% / 17.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,560 / 1,468 Melbourne Victory / Wellington Phoenix
RD 80 / 81 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.38 market consensus · no value · model 17.8%
X 4.52 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.44 market consensus · no value · model 60.5%
Double chance
X2 2.70 market consensus · no value · model 39.5%
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 78.3%
1X 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 82.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.78 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.25 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 20.9%
Under 2.5 2.54 market consensus · weak value +100.9% · model 79.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.19 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.61 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.45 69.0% 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%
X 4.65 21.5% 4.66 21.5% 4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 4.70 21.3% 4.75 21.1%
6.00 16.7% 6.87 14.6% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.25 44.4% 2.18 45.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.61 62.1% 1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.62 38.2% 2.74 36.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.75 36.4% 2.77 36.1% 2.80 35.7%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75 — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.0 — 1.16 86.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.5 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4%
Over 2.75 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 3.0 — 1.70 58.8%
Over 3.5 2.20 45.5% —
Over 4.5 3.70 27.0% —
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 1.5 5.50 18.2% —
Under 2.5 2.60 38.5% —
Under 3.5 1.65 60.6% —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9% —
Match center
Melbourne Victory
Founded 2004
Wellington Phoenix
Founded 2007
Match center
Melbourne Victory
LD L. D'Arrigo Leg Injury
BH B. Hamill Knee Injury
Wellington Phoenix
SS S. Singh Inactive
NW N. Walker Inactive
Melbourne Victory Founded: 2004
Wellington Phoenix Founded: 2007
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.