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Start
28.07.2026 18:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished
Africa Cup of Nations. U20. Qualifiying
Nigeria (w) - Malawi (w)
1
:
1
Finished
M
Malawi (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Nigeria (w) — 79%
Pure model vs market (1 · Nigeria (w)): model 60% · market 80% Δ −20 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Nigeria (w) 79.0%, draw 13.2%, win Malawi (w) 7.8%. Model favourite — Nigeria (w).
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Nigeria (w) (odds1.44)
Score 2:0
confidence 70%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Nigeria (Zh): probability 70% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.44)
- • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
- • Expected score 2:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Nigeria (w) - Malawi (w) July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nigeria (w).
Line favourite Fonbet: Nigeria (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.08 / X 6.50 / 2 13.00
- Glicko: Nigeria (w) 79.0% / X 13.2% / Malawi (w) 7.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 15.7%
1 ✓ Pick
80.0%
X
13.3%
2
6.7%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.05
↑ 1.08
1X2 X
9.50
↓ 6.50
1X2 2
18.00
↑ 30.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Nigeria (w)
4
:
1
Malawi (w)
11.18
X6.15
210.90
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Nigeria (w) - Malawi (w)
Form
2/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 79.0% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.383 / LogLoss 2.024
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 79.0% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.383 / LogLoss 2.024
Glicko-2: public filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 79.0% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.383 / LogLoss 2.024
Glicko-2: precision filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 79.0% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.383 / LogLoss 2.024
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Nigeria (w)
80.2%
79.0%
market and model agree
Draw
12.8%
13.2%
draw risk
Malawi (w)
7.0%
7.8%
1X2: 4 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
79.0% / 13.2% / 7.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,688 / 1,355
Nigeria (w) / Malawi (w)
RD
265 / 259
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,158-2,218 / 838-1,873
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
6.50
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.08
Fonbet · no value · model 79.0%
Double chance
12
1.07
Fonbet · no value · model 86.8%
1X
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 92.2%
X2
5.90
Fonbet · no value · model 21.0%
Handicap
2 -1
2.10
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
1.65
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.58
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.24
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.58 63.3% |
| yes | 2.24 44.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.01 99.0% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.07 93.5% |
| 1x | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| x2 | 4.30 23.3% | 4.70 21.3% | 5.90 17.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.53 65.4% | |
| X | 2.87 34.8% |
| 9.30 10.8% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.16 46.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.62 61.7% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
Nigeria (w)WWWWWDWWDW
Malawi (w)DLLLLLLLW
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.18 (Winline) · X 7.1 (Betcity) · 2 14 (Betcity)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.13 | 6.9 | 12.5 |
| Winline | 1.18 | 6.6 | 12 |
| Fonbet | 1.13 | 6.9 | 12.5 |
| Betcity | 1.15 | 7.1 | 14 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.18 | 6.4 | 11 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Nigeria (w)
W
W
Nigeria (w)
3:0
Senegal (Zh)
Senegal (Zh)
Nigeria (w)
2:1
Senegal (Zh)
Senegal (Zh)
2
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.5
Scored
0.5
Conceded
6
Points
Malawi (w)
L
L
L
Malawi (w)
0:4
Ghana (Zh)
Ghana (Zh)
Malawi (w)
1:2
Morocco (Zh)
Morocco (Zh)
Malawi (w)
0:1
Tanzaniya (Zh)
Tanzaniya (Zh)
0
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.3
Scored
2.3
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNigeria (w) - Malawi (w)
Nigeria (w)
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Nigeria (w) - Malawi (w) breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form