Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Gimnasia L.P. — 35%
Pure model vs market (2 · Gimnasia L.P.): model 30% · market 35% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Aldosivi 31.0%, draw 33.6%, win Gimnasia L.P. 35.4%. Model favourite — Gimnasia L.P..
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.54 64.9% |
| yes | 2.38 42.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.42 70.4% |
| 1x | 1.45 69.0% | 1.42 70.4% |
| x2 | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.02 24.9% | |
| X | 1.83 54.6% |
| 3.52 28.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.11 47.4% |
Barrakas Sentral
Defensa i Khustisiya
River Pleyt
Rasing
Full head-to-head historyAldosivi - Gimnasia L.P.
The Aldosivi - Gimnasia L.P. breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
