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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Clausura. 2-y Round 05.08.2026 22:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
05.08.2026 22:00 UTC Clausura. 2-y Round
Match in progress

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Boca Juniors - Estudiantes La Plata

Football
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
- : -
Match in progress
Estudiantes La Plata
Estudiantes La Plata

Boca Juniors face Estudiantes La Plata on August 5, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Boca Juniors 2-1-2, Estudiantes La Plata 3-0-2. The bookmaker line makes Boca Juniors the favourite at about 44%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Boca Juniors — 44%

Pure model vs market (1 · Boca Juniors): model 36% · market 44% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Boca Juniors43.7%
X · draw31.4%
2 · Estudiantes La Plata25.0%

Model estimate: win Boca Juniors 43.7%, draw 31.4%, win Estudiantes La Plata 25.0%. Model favourite — Boca Juniors.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Estudiantes La Plata (odds2.50) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Estudiantes: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.50)
  • • edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Boca Juniors - Estudiantes La Plata August 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors.

Line favourite market consensus: Boca Juniors. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.13 / X 2.95 / 2 3.90
  • 1X2 market: Boca Juniors 44.0% / X 31.9% / Estudiantes La Plata 24.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6% 16 books · best price +2.1%
1 44.2%
X 31.9%
2 23.9%

Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.77 ↓ 1.19
1X2 X 3.30 ↑ 5.30
1X2 P2 5.10 ↑ 20.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Profesional Argentina
League table
Boca Juniors
#932 ptsGP 198-8-325:15
Estudiantes La Plata
#834 ptsGP 1910-4-522:10
Best price across 14 books
1 2.17 Pinnacle
X 3.05 Betano
2 4.13 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Boca Juniors
W-D-L 5-4-1 Scored 1.50 Conceded 0.92 xG 1.18 xGA 0.86 Corners 5.4
Estudiantes La Plata
W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 1.50 Conceded 0.60 xG 1.18 xGA 0.83 Corners 3.8

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Boca Juniors
Rating 1605 xG 1.24 Win 44%
Estudiantes La Plata
Rating 1575 xG 0.90 Win 27%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Boca Juniors 0 : 0 Estudiantes La Plata
12.05
X3.14
24.07

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

LIVE

Now in play

score 1:0 · 77' · possession(proxy) 41%–59% · attacks 82:60 · dang.attacks 48:36

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

LIVE

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

78'
86% 12% 1%
Boca Juniors (1) Draw (X) Estudiantes La Plata (2)

Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.

LIVE

Match momentum (live)

1:0 77'
Boca Juniors Estudiantes La Plata
82Attacks60
48Dangerous attacks36
2Shots on target2
41%Control (ball-safe)59%
4Corners2
1Yellow cards2
12Fouls7

Live momentum from Sportradar (attacks/shots/control). Updates during the match.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated05.08.2026 21:01 UTC
1 37% ✓ favourite
X 36%
2 27%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:X2
Per AI data H2H: 1-2
Claude updated05.08.2026 21:06 UTC
1 42% ✓ favourite
X 33%
2 25%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5 gola

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 37% 36% 27% 1:1 Under 2.5 Yes X2
Claude 42% 33% 25% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Under 2.5 gola

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 05.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 44.1% @ 2.13 / X 31.8% @ 2.95 / 2 24.1% @ 3.90
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Boca Juniors 40%
📐 Math model Boca Juniors 44%
💹 Market Boca Juniors 4403%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Boca Juniors - Estudiantes La Plata

football, Boka Khuniors - Estudiantes LP, 6 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Boka Khuniors - Estudiantes LP, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 2-y Round.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Lineup / squad Line
More needed
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Boca Juniors 44.2% 43.7% market and model agree
Draw 31.9% 31.4% draw risk
Estudiantes La Plata 23.9% 25.0%
xG - 1.24 : 0.90

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.7% / 31.4% / 25.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,461 / 1,628 Boca Juniors / Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
RD 251 / 174 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 960-1,962 / 1,279-1,976 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.94 market consensus · no value · model 25.0%
X 7.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 43.7%
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 68.6%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 75.0%
X2 6.50 Fonbet · weak value +266.0% · model 56.3%
Handicap
2 -1 3.00 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.86 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 7.90 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.10 Fonbet · line only
Yes 5.40 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5%
X 2.98 33.6% 2.98 33.6% 2.90 34.5% 3.05 32.8% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
3.80 26.3% 3.98 25.1% 3.90 25.6% 3.95 25.3% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.10 90.9% 1.58 63.3%
yes 5.40 18.5% 2.29 43.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.35 74.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.05 95.2%
1x 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.79 55.9% 1.74 57.5% 6.50 15.4%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 6.00 16.7%
0_1 6.50 15.4%
0_2 15.00 6.7%
0_3 41.00 2.4%
0_4 126.00 0.8%
1_0 4.75 21.1%
1_1 5.25 19.1%
1_2 11.00 9.1%
1_3 31.00 3.2%
1_4 91.00 1.1%
2_0 7.50 13.3%
2_1 7.50 13.3%
2_2 15.00 6.7%
2_3 46.00 2.2%
3_0 15.00 6.7%
3_1 17.00 5.9%
3_2 34.00 2.9%
3_3 81.00 1.2%
Match center
Lineup summary
  • 1 vr Alvaro Montero
  • 17 zsch Leandro Losano
  • 2 zsch Lautaro Di Lollo
  • 26 zsch Marko Pellegrino
  • 3 zsch Lautaro Blanko
  • 25 pz Santyago Askasibar
  • 5 pz Leandro Paredes
  • 18 pz Milton Delgado
  • 10 pz Tomas Aranda
  • 19 np Leonel Flores
Boca Juniors

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Estudiantes La Plata

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-1-3, avg 2.67 gls
2026-01-29 · Boka Khuniors 1:2 Estudiantes La-Plata
2025-11-02 · Boka Khuniors 2:1 Estudiantes La-Plata
2025-04-19 · Boka Khuniors 2:0 Estudiantes La-Plata
2024-08-27 · Boka Khuniors 1:1 Estudiantes La-Plata
2023-11-23 · Boka Khuniors 2:3 Estudiantes La-Plata
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.16 (Betcity) · X 3 (Pari) · 2 4.15 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.05 3 4.15
Winline 2.1 2.9 4
Fonbet 2.1 2.9 4.05
Betcity 2.16 2.9 3.9
Liga Stavok 2.05 2.95 4.1
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Boca Juniors
D L L W W
2026-08-02 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Boca Juniors Newell's Old Boys 2:2 Boca Juniors
2026-07-31 CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026, Knockout stage
Boca Juniors O'Higgins 1:0 Boca Juniors
2026-07-26 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Boca Juniors Deportivo Riestra 3:0 Boca Juniors
2026-07-24 CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026, Knockout stage
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1:0 O'Higgins
2026-07-17 Copa Argentina 2026
Boca Juniors Sarmiento 0:2 Boca Juniors
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Estudiantes La Plata
W L W W L
2026-08-01 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Estudiantes La Plata 3:0 Defensa y Justicia Estudiantes La Plata
2026-07-26 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Estudiantes La Plata 0:2 Independiente Estudiantes La Plata
2026-05-31 Copa Argentina 2026
Estudiantes La Plata 3:0 Rosario Central Estudiantes La Plata
2026-05-27 CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026, Group A
Estudiantes La Plata 1:0 Independiente Medellin Estudiantes La Plata
2026-05-21 CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026, Group A
Flamengo RJ 1:0 Estudiantes La Plata Estudiantes La Plata
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Boca Juniors
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Estudiantes La Plata
Boca Juniors Team comparison Estudiantes La Plata
19 Games 19
8 Wins 10
7 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
26 Scored 22
17 Conceded 10
31 Points 34
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
13 Shots on goal 14.67
3.89 Udary v stvor 4
19 Games 19
8 Wins 10
7 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
26 Scored 22
17 Conceded 10

Boka Khuniors Estudiantes LP 19 Games 19 8 Wins 10 7 Draws 4 Losses 5 26 Scored 22 17 Conceded 10 31 Points 34 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13 Shots on goal 14.67 3.89 Udary v stvor 4 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.16 Uglovye 4 1.63 Offsaydy 1.05 8.89 Foly 10.68 59.32 % vladeniya myachom 52.21 1.89 Warnings 2.63 0 Sendoffs 0.11