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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Clausura. 2-y Round 29.07.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
29.07.2026 18:00 UTC Clausura. 2-y Round
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Defensa y Justicia - Deportivo Riestra

Football
Defensa y Justicia
Defensa y Justicia
0 : 0
Finished
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Defensa y Justicia — 39%

Pure model vs market (1 · Defensa y Justicia): model 23% · market 40% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Defensa y Justicia39.3%
X · draw32.2%
2 · Deportivo Riestra28.5%

Model estimate: win Defensa y Justicia 39.3%, draw 32.2%, win Deportivo Riestra 28.5%. Model favourite — Defensa y Justicia.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Deportivo Riestra (odds1.48) Score 0:2 confidence 67% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Deportivo Riestra: probability 67% vs 68% on the line (odds 1.48)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Defensa y Justicia - Deportivo Riestra July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Defensa y Justicia.

Strongest: Defensa y Justicia - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.32 / X 2.85 / 2 3.54
  • 1X2 market: Defensa y Justicia 40.6% / X 32.9% / Deportivo Riestra 26.6%
  • Glicko: Defensa y Justicia 39.3% / X 32.2% / Deportivo Riestra 28.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 40.5%
X 33.0%
2 26.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.20 ↑ 8.00
1X2 X 3.10 ↓ 1.13
1X2 2 3.20 ↑ 11.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Defensa y Justicia 1 : 1 Deportivo Riestra
12.37
X2.84
23.58

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
34 predictions Choose an outcome
1 7% 1
X 76% 10
2 15% 2
Double chance 12 1.43 (2) - X2 1.59 (2)
Total TB 1.5 1.65 (4) - TM 3.5 1.07 (2) - TM 3 1.10 (1)
handicap1 handicap1:0 1.56 (1) - handicap2:0 2.34 (1) - handicap2:-1 7.70 (1)
total_t1_under total_t1_under:1 1.80 (2)
Match center
Start 29.07.2026 18:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Draw 76%
📐 Math model Defensa y Justicia 39%
💹 Market Defensa y Justicia 4055%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Defensa y Justicia - Deportivo Riestra

Football, Defensa and Khustisiya - Deportivo Riestra, 29 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Defensa and Khustisiya - Deportivo Riestra, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 2 round.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 13 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 39.3% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.696 / LogLoss 1.134
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 39.3% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.696 / LogLoss 1.134
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Defensa y Justicia 40.4% 39.3% market and model agree
Draw 33.1% 32.2% draw risk
Deportivo Riestra 26.6% 28.5%
1X2: 16 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 39.3% / 32.2% / 28.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,160 / 1,758 Defensa y Justicia / Deportivo Riestra
RD 291 / 250 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 578-1,742 / 1,258-2,259 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.54 market consensus · no value · model 28.5%
X 7.10 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 39.3%
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 67.8%
1X 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 71.5%
X2 7.60 Fonbet · weak value +361.3% · model 60.7%
Handicap
2 -1 1.78 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.40 Fonbet · line only
2 0 6.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.28 43.9% 2.33 42.9% 2.38 42.0% 2.37 42.2% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%
X 2.92 34.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.88 34.7% 2.85 35.1% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5%
3.45 29.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.35 74.1% 1.53 65.4%
yes 2.95 33.9% 2.39 41.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.40 71.4% 1.39 71.9% 1.05 95.2%
1x 1.27 78.7% 1.26 79.4% 1.06 94.3%
x2 1.55 64.5% 1.58 63.3% 7.60 13.2%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 5.75 17.4%
0_1 5.75 17.4%
0_2 13.00 7.7%
0_3 41.00 2.4%
0_4 101.00 1.0%
1_0 4.50 22.2%
1_1 5.00 20.0%
1_2 11.00 9.1%
1_3 34.00 2.9%
1_4 91.00 1.1%
2_0 7.50 13.3%
2_1 8.50 11.8%
2_2 17.00 5.9%
2_3 51.00 2.0%
3_0 19.00 5.3%
3_1 21.00 4.8%
3_2 41.00 2.4%
3_3 91.00 1.1%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-2-0, avg 1.5 gls
2026-01-29 · Defensa i Khustisiya 1:0 Deportivo Riestra
2025-08-11 · Defensa i Khustisiya 1:0 Deportivo Riestra
2025-02-09 · Defensa i Khustisiya 1:1 Deportivo Riestra
2024-11-18 · Defensa i Khustisiya 1:1 Deportivo Riestra
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.16 (Betcity) · X 2.9 (Pari) · 2 4.1 (Liga Stavok)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.15 2.9 3.9
Winline 2.13 2.85 4
Fonbet 2.15 2.9 3.9
Betcity 2.16 2.9 3.9
Liga Stavok 2.08 2.9 4.1
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Defensa y Justicia
D
23.07 22:45 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Defensa y Justicia 1:1 Aldosivi
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Deportivo Riestra
W
26.07 20:30 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Riestra 3:0 Boka KhuniorsBoka Khuniors
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Defensa y Justicia
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Deportivo Riestra
Defensa y Justicia Team comparison Deportivo Riestra
17 Games 17
4 Wins 2
8 Draws 8
5 Losses 7
19 Scored 8
22 Conceded 12
20 Points 14
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
11 Shots on goal 6
3.59 Udary v stvor 2.88
17 Games 17
4 Wins 2
8 Draws 8
5 Losses 7
19 Scored 8
22 Conceded 12

Defensa and Khustisiya Deportivo Riestra 17 Games 17 4 Wins 2 8 Draws 8 5 Losses 7 19 Scored 8 22 Conceded 12 20 Points 14 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 11 Shots on goal 6 3.59 Udary v stvor 2.88 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.18 Uglovye 3.76 1.41 Offsaydy 2 8.53 Foly 15 51.71 % vladeniya myachom 34.88 1.76 Warnings 3.53 0.18 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Khuan Guterres 1:0 23' David Barbona 2:0 37' Nakazaniya Carlos Quintana 21'