Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Independiente - Newell's Old Boys
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Newell's Old Boys — 55%
Model estimate: win Independiente 26.3%, draw 18.4%, win Newell's Old Boys 55.2%. Model favourite — Newell's Old Boys.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Nyuells Old Boys: probability 55% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:2.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Independiente - Newell's Old Boys July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
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Independiente - Newell's Old Boys
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Independiente
Estudiantes
Full head-to-head historyIndependiente - Newell's Old Boys
Match history
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- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form