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29.07.2026 22:15 UTC
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29.07.2026 22:15 UTC
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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Independiente - Newell's Old Boys
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Not started
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Newell's Old Boys
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Independiente — 55%
Pure model vs market (1 · Independiente): model 31% · market 56% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Independiente 54.9%, draw 26.5%, win Newell's Old Boys 18.6%. Model favourite — Independiente.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Newell's Old Boys (odds1.81)
Score 1:2
confidence 55%
- • Model backs Nyuells Old Boys: probability 55% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:2.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Independiente - Newell's Old Boys July 29, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente.
Line favourite market consensus: Independiente. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.66 / X 3.47 / 2 5.57
- 1X2 market: Independiente 56.3% / X 26.9% / Newell's Old Boys 16.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.0%
1
56.3%
X
26.9%
2
16.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Independiente 55%
💹 Market
Independiente 5625%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Independiente - Newell's Old Boys
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Independiente
56.4%
54.9%
market and model agree
Draw
26.8%
26.5%
draw risk
Newell's Old Boys
16.8%
18.6%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
54.9% / 26.5% / 18.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,220 / 1,500
Independiente / Newell's Old Boys
RD
217 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
787-1,653 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.57
market consensus · no value · model 18.6%
X
3.48
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.66
market consensus · no value · model 54.9%
Double chance
12
1.26
market consensus · no value · model 73.5%
1X
1.12
market consensus · no value · model 81.4%
X2
2.16
market consensus · no value · model 45.1%
Handicap
2 +1
1.64
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.18
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.32
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.59
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.68 59.5% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | |
| X | 3.40 29.4% | 3.54 28.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 5.50 18.2% | 5.70 17.5% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.60 17.9% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.75 17.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.12 89.3% |
| x2 | 2.16 46.3% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 0_1 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 0_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 0_3 | 67.00 1.5% |
| 1_0 | 4.50 22.2% |
| 1_1 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 1_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 2_0 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 2_3 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 3_0 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 3_1 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 3_2 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 3_3 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 4_0 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 4_1 | 29.00 3.5% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 2.18 45.9% | |
| 1.64 61.0% |
Match center
Independiente
L
Independiente
1:2
Estudiantes
Estudiantes
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Newell's Old Boys
L
Newell's Old Boys
0:1
Taleres Kordoba
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyIndependiente - Newell's Old Boys
Independiente
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form