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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Clausura. 3-y Round 02.08.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
02.08.2026 20:00 UTC Clausura. 3-y Round
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors

Football
Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
1 : 1
Finished
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors

Newells Old Boys face Boca Juniors on August 2, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Newells Old Boys 0-0-2, Boca Juniors 0-0-1. The market favourite is Boca Juniors at roughly 46%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 25% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Boca Juniors — 46%

Pure model vs market (2 · Boca Juniors): model 42% · market 46% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Newells Old Boys24.8%
X · draw29.6%
2 · Boca Juniors45.7%

Model estimate: win Newells Old Boys 24.8%, draw 29.6%, win Boca Juniors 45.7%. Model favourite — Boca Juniors.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Boca Juniors (odds2.05) Score 1:2 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • liniya na pik P2 5.50→10.00 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Boka Khuniors: probability 50% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.05)
  • • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors August 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors.

Strongest: Boca Juniors - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.89 / X 3.11 / 2 2.06
  • 1X2 market: Newells Old Boys 24.2% / X 30.2% / Boca Juniors 45.6%
  • Glicko: Newells Old Boys 24.8% / X 29.6% / Boca Juniors 45.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 24.2%
X 30.2%
2 45.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.68 ↑ 12.50
1X2 X 3.25 ↓ 1.10
1X2 2 5.50 ↑ 10.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Profesional Argentina
League table
Newells Old Boys
#2419 ptsGP 194-7-818:30
Boca Juniors
#932 ptsGP 198-8-325:15
Best price across 14 books
1 4.51 Pinnacle
X 3.32 Pinnacle
2 2.00 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Newells Old Boys
W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 1.10 Conceded 1.19 xG 0.88 xGA 1.26 Corners 3.8
Boca Juniors
W-D-L 5-4-1 Scored 1.40 Conceded 0.81 xG 1.18 xGA 0.83 Corners 4.8

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Newells Old Boys
Rating 1457 xG 0.91 Win 26%
Boca Juniors
Rating 1611 xG 1.33 Win 46%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Newells Old Boys 1 : 1 Boca Juniors
14.28
X3.28
21.95

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
47 predictions Choose an outcome
1 0% 0
X 11% 1
2 88% 8
Double chance 12 1.34 (2) - X2 1.22 (1)
Total TB 1.5 1.51 (17) - TB 0.5 1.05 (1) - TM 2.5 1.45 (1)
handicap1 handicap1:0 3.00 (1) - handicap2:0 1.36 (1) - handicap2:-1_5 3.68 (1)
total_t1_under total_t1_over:0_5 1.67 (1) - total_t2_under:1_5 1.55 (1)
Match center
Start 02.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Market 1 24.2% @ 3.89 / X 30.2% @ 3.11 / 2 45.6% @ 2.06
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Boca Juniors 88%
📐 Math model Boca Juniors 46%
💹 Market Boca Juniors 4564%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Nyuells Old Boyz - Boka Khuniors, 2 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, tochnyy schet. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round. Nyuells Old Boyz - Boka Khuniors, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 9 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 45.7% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.766 / LogLoss 1.218
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 45.7% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.766 / LogLoss 1.218
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Newells Old Boys 24.1% 24.8%
Draw 30.0% 29.6% draw risk
Boca Juniors 45.9% 45.7% market and model agree
xG - 0.96 : 1.26
1X2: 16 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.8% / 29.6% / 45.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,278 / 1,461 Newell's Old Boys / Boca Juniors
RD 283 / 250 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 712-1,843 / 960-1,962 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.05 market consensus · no value · model 45.7%
X 3.12 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.92 market consensus · no value · model 24.8%
Double chance
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 70.4%
1X 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 54.3%
X2 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 75.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.41 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.75 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.55 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.24 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
4.00 25.0% 3.89 25.7% 4.10 24.4% 3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.60 62.5%
yes 2.24 44.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.32 75.8% 1.32 75.8%
1x 1.81 55.3% 1.74 57.5%
x2 1.19 84.0% 1.23 81.3%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 6.50 15.4%
0_1 4.75 21.1%
0_2 7.00 14.3%
0_3 15.00 6.7%
0_4 41.00 2.4%
0_5 91.00 1.1%
1_0 7.00 14.3%
1_1 5.25 19.1%
1_2 7.50 13.3%
1_3 15.00 6.7%
1_4 41.00 2.4%
1_5 91.00 1.1%
2_0 15.00 6.7%
2_1 12.00 8.3%
2_2 15.00 6.7%
2_3 31.00 3.2%
2_4 71.00 1.4%
3_0 46.00 2.2%
Match center
Newells Old Boys
L L
30.07 22:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Newells Old Boys 0:1 IndependenteIndependente
25.07 18:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Newells Old Boys 0:1 Taleres KordobaTaleres Kordoba
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points
Boca Juniors
L
26.07 20:30 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Boca Juniors 0:3 Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Newells Old Boys
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys Team comparison Boca Juniors
18 Games 18
4 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
8 Losses 4
16 Scored 24
28 Conceded 15
18 Points 30
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
7.33 Shots on goal 12
3.56 Udary v stvor 3.89
18 Games 18
4 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
8 Losses 4
16 Scored 24
28 Conceded 15

Nyuells Old Boyz Boka Khuniors 18 Games 18 4 Wins 8 6 Draws 6 8 Losses 4 16 Scored 24 28 Conceded 15 18 Points 30 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 7.33 Shots on goal 12 3.56 Udary v stvor 3.89 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.61 Uglovye 5.06 1.72 Offsaydy 1.72 12.06 Foly 8.78 44 % vladeniya myachom 59.28 2.44 Warnings 1.83 0.11 Sendoffs 0 Goly Santyago Askasibar Sebastyan Vilya 0:1 30' Matias Kokkaro Facundo Samuel Guch 1 50' Luca Regiardo Tomas Rios 2:1 59' Alan Velasko Tomas Aranda 2 81' Nakazaniya Lautaro Khianetti 43' Ayrton Kosta 45+1' Luca Regiardo 55' Leandro Paredes 68' Alan Velasko 80'