Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
River Plate meet Rosario Central on August 2, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): River Plate 1-0-1, Rosario Central 0-2-0. Sportsbooks lean towards River Plate, an implied 46% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 48% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 River Plate — 48%
Pure model vs market (1 · River Plate): model 59% · market 46% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win River Plate 47.5%, draw 29.8%, win Rosario Central 22.7%. Model favourite — River Plate.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like River Plate.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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football, River Pleyt - Rosario Sentral, 3 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha River Pleyt - Rosario Sentral, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 47.2% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% | 3.26 30.7% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.13 32.0% |
| 3.75 26.7% | 4.18 23.9% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.10 24.4% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.56 64.1% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 2.33 42.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.34 74.6% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.35 74.1% |
| 1x | 1.14 87.7% | 1.16 86.2% | 2.35 42.6% |
| x2 | 1.88 53.2% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.08 92.6% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 0_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 0_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 0_4 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 1_1 | 5.25 19.1% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 1_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 2_0 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 2_1 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 2_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 2_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 2_4 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 3_0 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 3_1 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 3_2 | 31.00 3.2% |
River Plate
Barrakas Sentral
Rasing
Full head-to-head historyRiver Plate - Rosario Central
River Pleyt Rosario Sentral 22 Games 21 12 Wins 10 2 Draws 5 8 Losses 6 29 Scored 26 19 Conceded 21 38 Points 35 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13.86 Shots on goal 11.5 4.73 Udary v stvor 4.1 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.55 Uglovye 4.43 1.5 Offsaydy 1.57 11.59 Foly 10.24 65.5 % vladeniya myachom 55.86 2.41 Warnings 2.38 0.14 Sendoffs 0 Nakazaniya Lautaro Rivero 10'
The River Plate - Rosario Central breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
