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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
02.08.2026 22:00 UTC
02.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Not started

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Velez Sarsfield - Independiente

Football
V
Velez Sarsfield
- : -
Not started
Independiente
Independiente

Velez Sarsfield face Independiente on August 2, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Velez Sarsfield 2-0-0, Independiente 1-0-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Velez Sarsfield — 38%

Pure model vs market (1 · Velez Sarsfield): model 58% · market 36% Δ +22 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Velez Sarsfield37.8%
X · draw32.7%
2 · Independiente29.4%

Model estimate: win Velez Sarsfield 37.8%, draw 32.7%, win Independiente 29.4%. Model favourite — Velez Sarsfield.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds2.80) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 36% on the line (odds 2.80)
  • • edge over the line +14 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Velez Sarsfield - Independiente August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Velez Sarsfield. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.60 / X 2.80 / 2 3.18

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%
1 36.4%
X 33.8%
2 29.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Profesional Argentina
League table
Velez Sarsfield
#634 ptsGP 199-7-322:14
Independiente
#1030 ptsGP 198-6-528:23
Best price across 14 books
1 2.63 Pinnacle
X 3.00 Unibet
2 3.20 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Velez Sarsfield
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.21 Conceded 0.90 xG 1.22 xGA 0.84 Corners 4.8
Independiente
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.19 xG 1.14 xGA 0.93 Corners 5.1

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Velez Sarsfield
Rating 1580 xG 1.17 Win 41%
Independiente
Rating 1569 xG 0.96 Win 30%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 36.4% @ 2.60 / X 33.8% @ 2.80 / 2 29.8% @ 3.18
Match center

Velez Sarsfield - Independiente

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Velez Sarsfield 36.5% 37.8% market and model agree
Draw 33.5% 32.7% draw risk
Independiente 30.0% 29.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.8% / 32.7% / 29.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,721 / 1,422 Velez Sarsfield / Independiente
RD 254 / 174 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,212-2,229 / 1,074-1,770 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.13 market consensus · no value · model 29.4%
X 2.80 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.57 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Double chance
12 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 67.3%
1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 70.6%
X2 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 62.2%
Handicap
2 0 2.06 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.50 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.75 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.75 57.1%
yes 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.39 71.9% 1.40 71.4%
1x 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6%
x2 1.47 68.0% 1.46 68.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.28 30.5%
X 1.97 50.8%
3.75 26.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.53 65.4%
Under 0.5 2.34 42.7%
Match center
Velez Sarsfield
W W
30.07 22:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Velez Sarsfield 3:1 Taleres KordobaTaleres Kordoba
24.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Velez Sarsfield 1:0 Instituto
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points
Independiente
W L
30.07 22:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Independiente 1:0 Nyuells Old BoysNyuells Old Boys
26.07 18:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Independiente 1:2 EstudiantesEstudiantes
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points