Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Velez Sarsfield face Independiente on August 3, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Velez Sarsfield 2-0-0, Independiente 1-0-1. Sportsbooks lean towards Velez Sarsfield, an implied 37% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Velez Sarsfield — 38%
Pure model vs market (1 · Velez Sarsfield): model 58% · market 37% Δ +21 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Velez Sarsfield 37.6%, draw 32.5%, win Independiente 29.9%. Model favourite — Velez Sarsfield.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Velez Sarsfield.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.66 37.6% | 2.66 37.6% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.55 39.2% | |
| X | 2.80 35.7% | 2.84 35.2% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.85 35.1% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.96 33.8% | 3.08 32.5% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.75 57.1% |
| yes | 2.00 50.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.40 71.4% |
| 1x | 1.32 75.8% | 1.34 74.6% |
| x2 | 1.44 69.4% | 1.46 68.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 0_1 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 0_2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 0_3 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 0_4 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 1_0 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 1_1 | 4.75 21.1% |
| 1_2 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 1_3 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 1_4 | 61.00 1.6% |
| 2_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 2_4 | 81.00 1.2% |
| 3_0 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 3_1 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 3_2 | 31.00 3.2% |
Taleres Kordoba
Instituto
Independiente
Nyuells Old Boys
Estudiantes
Full head-to-head historyVelez Sarsfield - Independiente
Veles Sarsfild Independente 19 Games 19 9 Wins 8 7 Draws 6 3 Losses 5 22 Scored 28 14 Conceded 23 34 Points 30 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13.8 Shots on goal 11.25 4.05 Udary v stvor 4.16 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.16 Uglovye 5.58 1.05 Offsaydy 2.16 10.47 Foly 11.63 54.32 % vladeniya myachom 51.32 2.26 Warnings 2.37 0.05 Sendoffs 0.21 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Gilermo Barros Skelotto Glavnye trenery Gustavo Kinteros Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 25% 12% 63% Double chance 19% 43% 38% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1291242' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Argentina — Primera Turnirnaya Standings
The Velez Sarsfield - Independiente breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
