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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Clausura. 3-y Round 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Clausura. 3-y Round
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Velez Sarsfield - Independiente

Football
V
Velez Sarsfield
1 : 0
Finished
Independiente
Independiente

Velez Sarsfield face Independiente on August 3, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Velez Sarsfield 3-1-1, Independiente 4-0-1. Sportsbooks lean towards Velez Sarsfield, an implied 37% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 38% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Velez Sarsfield — 38%

Pure model vs market (1 · Velez Sarsfield): model 58% · market 36% Δ +22 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Velez Sarsfield37.7%
X · draw31.6%
2 · Independiente30.7%

Model estimate: win Velez Sarsfield 37.7%, draw 31.6%, win Independiente 30.7%. Model favourite — Velez Sarsfield.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds2.80) Score 1:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 36% on the line (odds 2.80)
  • • edge over the line +14 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Velez Sarsfield - Independiente August 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Velez Sarsfield.

Strongest: Velez Sarsfield - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.56 / X 2.92 / 2 3.00
  • 1X2 market: Velez Sarsfield 36.7% / X 32.1% / Independiente 31.3%
  • Glicko: Velez Sarsfield 37.7% / X 31.6% / Independiente 30.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3% 16 books · best price +3.1%
1 36.4%
X 32.3%
2 31.3%

Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.55 ↓ 1.02
1X2 X 2.85 ↑ 6.80
1X2 2 3.05 ↑ 90.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Profesional Argentina
League table
Velez Sarsfield
#834 ptsGP 199-7-322:14
Independiente
#1030 ptsGP 198-6-528:23
Best price across 14 books
1 2.68 10Bet
X 3.01 Pinnacle
2 3.20 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Velez Sarsfield
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.21 Conceded 0.90 xG 1.22 xGA 0.84 Corners 4.8
Independiente
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.19 xG 1.14 xGA 0.93 Corners 5.1

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Velez Sarsfield
Rating 1580 xG 1.15 Win 40%
Independiente
Rating 1569 xG 0.99 Win 31%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Velez Sarsfield 1 : 1 Independiente
12.61
X2.94
23.04

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 22:39 UTC
1 39% ✓ favourite
X 34%
2 27%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X and Under 2.5
Per AI data H2H: 1-1
Claude updated03.08.2026 22:42 UTC
1 38% ✓ favourite
X 32%
2 30%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5
Per AI data H2H: 2-1-2

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 39% 34% 27% 1:0 Under 2.5 No 1X and Under 2.5
Claude 38% 32% 30% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Under 2.5

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 36.6% @ 2.56 / X 32.1% @ 2.92 / 2 31.3% @ 3.00
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Velez Sarsfield 39%
📐 Math model Velez Sarsfield 38%
💹 Market Velez Sarsfield 3665%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Velez Sarsfield - Independiente

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Veles Sarsfild - Independente, 4 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round. Veles Sarsfild - Independente, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Lineup / squad Line
More needed
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 37.7% fact: home hit / Brier 0.582 / LogLoss 0.975
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 37.7% fact: home hit / Brier 0.582 / LogLoss 0.975
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Velez Sarsfield 36.4% 37.7% market and model agree
Draw 32.3% 31.6% draw risk
Independiente 31.3% 30.7%
xG - 1.15 : 0.99
1X2: 17 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.7% / 31.6% / 30.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,721 / 1,422 Velez Sarsfield / Independiente de la Chorrera
RD 254 / 174 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,212-2,229 / 1,074-1,770 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.01 market consensus · no value · model 30.7%
X 6.80 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 37.7%
Double chance
12 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 68.4%
1X 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 69.3%
X2 10.00 Fonbet · weak value +522.9% · model 62.3%
Handicap
2 -1 1.75 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.95 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.03 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.53 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Yes 6.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.68 37.3% 2.61 38.3% 2.62 38.2% 2.62 38.2% 2.45 40.8% 2.55 39.2%
X 2.88 34.7% 2.94 34.0% 2.80 35.7% 2.85 35.1% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
2.86 35.0% 3.04 32.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 2.88 34.7% 3.00 33.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.06 94.3% 1.70 58.8%
yes 6.90 14.5% 2.07 48.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.06 94.3%
1x 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.20 83.3%
x2 1.45 69.0% 1.46 68.5% 10.00 10.0%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 6.50 15.4%
0_1 6.25 16.0%
0_2 11.00 9.1%
0_3 29.00 3.5%
0_4 76.00 1.3%
1_0 5.75 17.4%
1_1 5.00 20.0%
1_2 9.00 11.1%
1_3 21.00 4.8%
1_4 61.00 1.6%
2_0 10.00 10.0%
2_1 8.50 11.8%
2_2 13.00 7.7%
2_3 34.00 2.9%
2_4 81.00 1.2%
3_0 23.00 4.4%
3_1 19.00 5.3%
3_2 31.00 3.2%
Match center
Lineup summary
  • 1 vr Tomas Marchiori
  • 4 zsch Khoakin Garsiya
  • 32 zsch Thiago Silvero
  • 3 zsch Elias Gomes
  • 16 pz Lisandro Magalyan
  • 8 pz Lukas Robertone
  • 29 pz Rodrigo Alendro
  • 11 pz Matias Pellegrini
  • 10 pz Diego Valdes
  • 22 pz Manuel Lantsini
Velez Sarsfield

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Independiente

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-3-1, avg 1.83 gls
2026-01-31 · Veles Sarsfild 1:1 Independente
2025-08-16 · Veles Sarsfild 2:1 Independente
2025-02-12 · Veles Sarsfild 0:3 Independente
2024-09-27 · Veles Sarsfild 1:0 Independente
2024-05-26 · Veles Sarsfild 1:1 Independente
Source: ruscore
Velez Sarsfield
W W L D W
2026-07-30 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Velez Sarsfield Talleres Cordoba 1:3 Velez Sarsfield
2026-07-24 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1:0 Instituto Cordoba
2026-05-11 Primera LPF 2026, Apertura, Playoffs
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0:1 Gimnasia La Plata
2026-05-04 Primera LPF 2026, Apertura, Group A
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1:1 Newell's Old Boys
2026-05-01 Copa Argentina 2026
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2:0 Gimnasia Tiro
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points
Independiente
W W W L W
2026-07-31 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Independiente 1:0 Newell's Old Boys Independiente
2026-07-26 Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Estudiantes La Plata 0:2 Independiente Independiente
2026-05-22 Copa Argentina 2026
Union Santa Fe 0:2 Independiente Independiente
2026-05-10 Primera LPF 2026, Apertura, Playoffs
Rosario Central 3:1 Independiente Independiente
2026-05-02 Primera LPF 2026, Apertura, Group A
San Lorenzo Almagro 1:2 Independiente Independiente
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Velez Sarsfield
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Independiente
Velez Sarsfield Team comparison Independiente
19 Games 19
9 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 5
22 Scored 28
14 Conceded 23
34 Points 30
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
13.8 Shots on goal 11.25
4.05 Udary v stvor 4.16
19 Games 19
9 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 5
22 Scored 28
14 Conceded 23

Veles Sarsfild Independente 19 Games 19 9 Wins 8 7 Draws 6 3 Losses 5 22 Scored 28 14 Conceded 23 34 Points 30 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13.8 Shots on goal 11.25 4.05 Udary v stvor 4.16 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.16 Uglovye 5.58 1.05 Offsaydy 2.16 10.47 Foly 11.63 54.32 % vladeniya myachom 51.32 2.26 Warnings 2.37 0.05 Sendoffs 0.21 Goly Thiago Aguirre 1:0 70' Nakazaniya Dilan Godoy 42' Maksimilyano Guterres 45+3' Santiago Gabriel Montiel 53' Matias Pellegrini 70' Simon Eskobar 85'