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WC 2026. Final
WC 2026. Final
04.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

WC 2026. Final

Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dalmine

Futbol
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
1 : 2
Finished
Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dalmine July 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villa Dalmine.

Line favourite market consensus: Villa Dalmine. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.89 / X 2.64 / 2 2.58
  • 1X2 market: Deportivo Merlo 31.1% / X 34.0% / Villa Dalmine 34.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.2%
1 31.1%
X 34.1%
2 34.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera B Metropolitana
League table
Deportivo Merlo
#931 ptsGP 218-7-626:28
LLLDL
Villa Dalmine
#340 ptsGP 2111-7-326:11
WLWWD
Best price across 11 books
1 3.05 Dafabet
X 2.75 Unibet
2 2.65 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Deportivo Merlo
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.10 Conceded 1.81 xG 0.92 xGA 0.99
Villa Dalmine
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 0.90 Conceded 0.60 xG 1.12 xGA 0.76

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Deportivo Merlo
Rating 1489
Villa Dalmine
Rating 1580

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Form and head-to-head • Primera B Metropolitana

Team stats

Deportivo Merlo
WLWWDWLDLL
W 4 • D 2 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:1.1 : 1.8
10 place, 31 pts
Villa Dalmine
WWDDLLDWWL
W 4 • D 3 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:0.9 : 0.6
4 place, 40 pts
Head-to-head: 9 — Deportivo Merlo 4, draws 2, Villa Dalmine 3 (goals 5:8)
  • Villa Dalmine — Deportivo Merlo2026-02-22 0:1
  • Deportivo Merlo — Villa Dalmine2025-08-03 0:0
  • Villa Dalmine — Deportivo Merlo2025-03-15 0:2
  • Villa Dalmine — Deportivo Merlo2024-09-28 2:0
  • Deportivo Merlo — Villa Dalmine2024-05-12 1:0

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Deportivo Merlo
Well rested
  • Rest days: 7
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Villa Dalmine
No recent matches

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dalmine

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.10 Fonbet · line only
X 5.60 Fonbet · line only
1 2.91 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.10 Fonbet · line only
1X 5.40 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.18 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0 1.92 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.78 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.20 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.73 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.88 34.7% 2.93 34.1% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7% 2.63 38.0%
X 2.75 36.4% 2.60 38.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.75 36.4% 2.50 40.0%
2.60 38.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.65 37.7% 2.55 39.2% 2.38 42.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.00 50.0% 1.54 64.9%
yes 1.73 57.8% 2.32 43.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.39 71.9% 1.41 70.9% 1.10 90.9%
1x 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 5.40 18.5%
x2 1.32 75.8% 1.34 74.6% 1.18 84.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.19 23.9%
X 1.70 58.8%
3.53 28.3%
Match center
Deportivo Merlo
D L W
14.06 20:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 2:2 Arkhentino de MerloArkhentino de Merlo
05.06 21:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 0:2 Taleres EskaladaTaleres Eskalada
02.06 20:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 2:1 LaferrereLaferrere
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
4 Points
Villa Dalmine
W L
12.06 21:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 2:0 San-Martin BursakoSan-Martin Bursako
31.05 13:30 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 0:1 LiniersLiniers
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
3 Points