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Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana

San Martín Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo

Football
San Martín Burzaco
San Martín Burzaco
0 : 1
Finished
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 San Martín Burzaco — 56%

Pure model vs market (1 · San Martín Burzaco): model 44% · market 34% Δ +10 pp model estimates above the market

1 · San Martín Burzaco56.1%
X · draw20.9%
2 · Deportivo Merlo23.1%

Model estimate: win San Martín Burzaco 56.1%, draw 20.9%, win Deportivo Merlo 23.1%. Model favourite — San Martín Burzaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1San Martín Burzaco (odds1.78) Score 2:1 Over 2.5 (odds2.75) ✗ Handicap H1 +1.5 (odds1.25) ✓ confidence 56% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs San-Martin Bursako: probability 56% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.78)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1
  • • Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.75)
  • • Handicap F1 +1.5: score forecast 2:1 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.25).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction San Martín Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like San Martín Burzaco.

Line favourite market consensus: San Martín Burzaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.70 / X 2.90 / 2 2.75
  • Glicko: San Martín Burzaco 56.1% / X 20.9% / Deportivo Merlo 23.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 34.3%
X 32.0%
2 33.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera B Metropolitana
League table
San Martín Burzaco
#1235 ptsGP 278-11-826:25
ARRAY
Deportivo Merlo
#1136 ptsGP 279-9-932:40
ARRAY
Best price across 8 books
1 2.70 Unibet
X 3.00 Betfair
2 2.77 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
San Martín Burzaco
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.60 Conceded 1.00 xG 0.88 xGA 1.11
Deportivo Merlo
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 1.20 Conceded 2.10 xG 0.92 xGA 1.02

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
San Martín Burzaco
Rating 1503 xG 1.07 Win 36%
Deportivo Merlo
Rating 1482 xG 1.04 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

San Martín Burzaco 1 : 1 Deportivo Merlo
12.28
X2.66
23.49

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 34.3% @ 2.70 / X 32.0% @ 2.90 / 2 33.7% @ 2.75
Match center

San Martín Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form, table home - 56.1% fact: away missed / Brier 0.950 / LogLoss 1.467
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form, table home - 56.1% fact: away missed / Brier 0.950 / LogLoss 1.467
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
San Martín Burzaco - 56.1% model pick
Draw - 20.9% draw risk
Deportivo Merlo - 23.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 56.1% / 20.9% / 23.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,383 / 1,354 San Martin Burzaco / Deportivo Merlo
RD 161 / 149 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,061-1,704 / 1,056-1,652 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.72 market consensus · no value · model 23.1%
X 2.89 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.69 market consensus · weak value +50.8% · model 56.1%
Double chance
12 1.35 market consensus · value +6.8% · model 79.1%
1X 1.39 market consensus · value +6.9% · model 76.9%
X2 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 43.9%
Handicap
2 0 1.87 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.84 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.75 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.71 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.71 58.5%
yes 2.01 49.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5%
1x 1.38 72.5% 1.39 71.9%
x2 1.39 71.9% 1.41 70.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.57 28.0%
X 1.85 54.1%
3.44 29.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.54 64.9%
Under 0.5 2.31 43.3%
Match center
San Martín Burzaco
L L W D L
26.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
San Martín Burzaco 0:2 Deportivo CamionerosDeportivo Camioneros
18.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
San Martín Burzaco 1:2 Sportivo ItalyanoSportivo Italyano
14.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
San Martín Burzaco 2:1 ItusaingoItusaingo
05.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
San Martín Burzaco 1:1 LiniersLiniers
12.06 21:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
San Martín Burzaco 0:2 Villa DalmineVilla Dalmine
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Deportivo Merlo
L D W D L
25.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 1:2 Vilya San-KarlosVilya San-Karlos
18.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 1:1 LiniersLiniers
14.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 3:2 Real PilarReal Pilar
10.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 0:0 UAI UrkisaUAI Urkisa
04.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 1:2 Villa DalmineVilla Dalmine
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points