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Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana
Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Not started

Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana

El Porvenir - Fénix

Football
El Porvenir
El Porvenir
- : -
Not started
Fénix
Fénix
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 El Porvenir — 41%

Pure model vs market (1 · El Porvenir): model 31% · market 42% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · El Porvenir41.3%
X · draw31.9%
2 · Fénix26.7%

Model estimate: win El Porvenir 41.3%, draw 31.9%, win Fénix 26.7%. Model favourite — El Porvenir.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds2.87) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 35% on the line (odds 2.87)
  • • edge over the line +15 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction El Porvenir - Fénix August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: El Porvenir. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.20 / X 2.88 / 2 3.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.2%
1 42.4%
X 32.4%
2 25.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera C
League table
El Porvenir
#2025 ptsGP 214-13-417:18
ARRAY
Fénix
#2521 ptsGP 215-6-1014:22
ARRAY
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
El Porvenir
W-D-L 1-5-4 Scored 0.50 Conceded 0.91 xG 0.98 xGA 0.87
Fénix
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 0.91 Conceded 1.10 xG 0.71 xGA 1.27

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
El Porvenir
Rating 1495
Fénix
Rating 1444

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 42.4% @ 2.20 / X 32.4% @ 2.88 / 2 25.2% @ 3.70
Match center

El Porvenir - Fénix

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
El Porvenir 42.0% 41.3% market and model agree
Draw 32.3% 31.9% draw risk
Fénix 25.7% 26.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.3% / 31.9% / 26.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,346 / 1,632 Sportivo Trinidense (r) / Atletico Fenix
RD 179 / 125 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 988-1,703 / 1,383-1,882 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.60 market consensus · no value · model 26.7%
X 2.84 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 41.3%
Double chance
12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 68.1%
1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 73.3%
X2 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 58.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 4.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.46 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.48 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.47 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.48 67.6%
yes 2.47 40.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.30 76.9% 1.37 73.0%
1x 1.19 84.0% 1.24 80.7%
x2 1.52 65.8% 1.60 62.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.03 33.0%
X 1.82 55.0%
4.55 22.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.62 61.7%
Over 1.5 4.10 24.4%
Under 0.5 2.08 48.1%
Under 1.5 1.17 85.5%
Match center
El Porvenir
L L D D L
28.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
El Porvenir 2:3 Sportivo BarrakasSportivo Barrakas
18.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
El Porvenir 0:2 MersedesMersedes
11.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
El Porvenir 0:0 Klub LukhanKlub Lukhan
05.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
El Porvenir 1:1 Kheneral LamadridKheneral Lamadrid
13.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
El Porvenir 0:1 AtlasAtlas
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
2 Points
Fénix
D W W L W
27.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Fénix 1:1 YupankiYupanki
17.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Fénix 1:0 Puerto-NuevoPuerto-Nuevo
13.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Fénix 2:1 Sportivo BarrakasSportivo Barrakas
05.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Fénix 1:2 Klub LukhanKlub Lukhan
29.06 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Fénix 3:1 Kheneral LamadridKheneral Lamadrid
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyEl Porvenir - Fénix

El Porvenir
0 matches total
Fénix
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history