Argentina. Primera Nacional
Almagro meet Gimnasia Y Tiro on August 4, 2026 in the Argentina. Primera Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): Almagro 3-1-1, Gimnasia Y Tiro 4-1-0. The market favourite is Almagro at roughly 38%. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Gimnasia Y Tiro — 33%
Pure model vs market (2 · Gimnasia Y Tiro): model 41% · market 28% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Almagro 33.0%, draw 34.0%, win Gimnasia Y Tiro 33.0%. Model favourite — Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Almagro.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 12 books (1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, Betano, Betcity, Betfair). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Dafabet | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 41.5% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.39 41.8% | |
| X | 2.53 39.5% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.53 39.5% |
| 3.46 28.9% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.38 29.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.55 64.5% |
| yes | 2.40 41.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.42 70.4% |
| 1x | 1.35 74.1% | 1.37 73.0% |
| x2 | 1.36 73.5% | 1.37 73.0% |
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 4.65 21.5% |
| 0_1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 0_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_11 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_4 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_6 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_7 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_8 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_9 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 1_1 | 4.50 22.2% |
| 1_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 36.00 2.8% |
| 1_4 | 100.00 1.0% |
Almagro
Midlend
Atletiko Atlanta
San-Martin Tukuman
Agropekuario
Klub A. Germes
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Temperley
Deportivo Maypu
Patronato
Kolekhiales
Midlend
Full head-to-head historyAlmagro - Gimnasia Y Tiro
The Almagro - Gimnasia Y Tiro breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
