Argentina. Primera Nacional
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Almagro — 38%
Pure model vs market (1 · Almagro): model 37% · market 38% Δ −1 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Almagro 38.4%, draw 33.9%, win Gimnasia Y Tiro 27.7%. Model favourite — Almagro.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Almagro.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Dafabet | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 41.5% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.39 41.8% | |
| X | 2.53 39.5% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.53 39.5% |
| 3.46 28.9% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.38 29.6% |
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 4.65 21.5% |
| 0_1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 0_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_11 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_4 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_6 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_7 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_8 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_9 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 1_1 | 4.50 22.2% |
| 1_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 36.00 2.8% |
| 1_4 | 100.00 1.0% |
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.12 89.3% |
| Over 0.75 | 1.16 86.2% |
| Over 1.0 | 1.22 82.0% |
| Over 1.25 | 1.47 68.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.68 59.5% |
| Over 1.75 | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 2.0 | 2.28 43.9% |
| Over 2.25 | 2.66 37.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 3.04 32.9% |
| Over 2.75 | 3.82 26.2% |
| Over 3.0 | 5.40 18.5% |
| Over 3.25 | 5.84 17.1% |
| Over 3.5 | 6.25 16.0% |
| Over 3.75 | 9.30 10.8% |
| Over 4.0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| Over 4.5 | 13.50 7.4% |
| Over 5.5 | 22.00 4.6% |
| Under 0.5 | 4.65 21.5% |
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Dafabet | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 41.5% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.39 41.8% | |
| X | 2.53 39.5% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.53 39.5% |
| 3.46 28.9% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.38 29.6% |
Almagro
Atletiko Atlanta
San-Martin Tukuman
Agropekuario
Klub A. Germes
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Deportivo Maypu
Patronato
Kolekhiales
Midlend
Full head-to-head historyAlmagro - Gimnasia Y Tiro
The Almagro - Gimnasia Y Tiro breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
