Argentina. Primera Nacional
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Almagro — 33%
Pure model vs market (1 · Almagro): model 38% · market 33% Δ +5 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Almagro 33.2%, draw 34.3%, win Midland 32.5%. Model favourite — Almagro.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.50 66.7% |
| yes | 2.53 39.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.40 71.4% | 1.44 69.4% |
| 1x | 1.35 74.1% | 1.36 73.5% |
| x2 | 1.36 73.5% | 1.37 73.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.84 26.0% | |
| X | 1.79 55.9% |
| 3.84 26.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.68 59.5% |
| Over 1 | 3.05 32.8% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.07 48.3% |
| Under 1 | 1.33 75.2% |
Almagro
Atletiko Atlanta
San-Martin Tukuman
Agropekuario
Klub A. Germes
Midland
Patronato
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
Khimnasiya i Tiro
San-Martin Tukuman
Full head-to-head historyAlmagro - Midland
The Almagro - Midland breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
