Friendly. Clubs
Atletico Mitre face Defensores Belgrano on August 9, 2026 in the Friendly. Clubs.
Recent form (W-D-L): Atletico Mitre 2-2-1, Defensores Belgrano 0-1-3. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Atletico Mitre — 42%
Pure model vs market (1 · Atletico Mitre): model 53% · market 41% Δ +12 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Atletico Mitre 42.0%, draw 33.0%, win Defensores Belgrano 25.1%. Model favourite — Atletico Mitre.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.54 64.9% |
| yes | 2.43 41.2% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.36 73.5% | 1.39 71.9% |
| 1x | 1.22 82.0% | 1.23 81.3% |
| x2 | 1.49 67.1% | 1.58 63.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.05 32.8% | |
| X | 1.87 53.5% |
| 4.61 21.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.63 38.0% |
| Under 1 | 1.43 69.9% |
Atletico Mitre
Syudad Bolivar
Almirante Braun
Rasing Kordova
Estudiantes
Oll Boys
Defensores Belgrano
Estudiantes
Oll Boys
Godoy Krus
Kolon Santa Fe
Full head-to-head historyAtletico Mitre - Defensores Belgrano
The Atletico Mitre - Defensores Belgrano breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
