Argentina. Primera Nacional
Gimnasia Y Tiro meet Nueva Chicago on August 9, 2026 in the Argentina. Primera Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): Gimnasia Y Tiro 4-1-0, Nueva Chicago 2-1-2. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Gimnasia Y Tiro — 49%
Pure model vs market (1 · Gimnasia Y Tiro): model 55% · market 49% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Gimnasia Y Tiro 49.1%, draw 30.8%, win Nueva Chicago 20.1%. Model favourite — Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.48 67.6% |
| yes | 2.60 38.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.13 88.5% | 1.16 86.2% |
| x2 | 1.73 57.8% | 1.85 54.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.66 37.6% | |
| X | 1.86 53.8% |
| 6.00 16.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.71 36.9% |
| Under 1 | 1.41 70.9% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.85 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| Winline | 1.97 | 2.85 | 4.2 |
| Fonbet | 1.83 | 2.9 | 4.5 |
| Betcity | 1.85 | 3.1 | 4.6 |
| Liga Stavok | 2 | 2.85 | 4.2 |
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Almagro
Temperley
Deportivo Maypu
Patronato
Kolekhiales
Nueva Chicago
San-Martin Tukuman
Atletiko Rafaela
Agropekuario
Tristan Suares
Chakarita Khuniors
Full head-to-head historyGimnasia Y Tiro - Nueva Chicago
The Gimnasia Y Tiro - Nueva Chicago breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
