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30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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30.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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Argentina. Primera Nacional
Chacarita Juniors - Agropecuario
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Chacarita Juniors — 58%
Pure model vs market (1 · Chacarita Juniors): model 41% · market 14% Δ +27 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Chacarita Juniors 58.0%, draw 20.7%, win Agropecuario 21.3%. Model favourite — Chacarita Juniors.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Chacarita Juniors - Agropecuario July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 6.60 / X 1.16 / 2 12.00
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.7%
1
13.8%
X
78.6%
2
7.6%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
3.85
↑ 6.60
1X2 X
1.35
↓ 1.16
1X2 P2
10.00
↑ 12.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Chacarita Juniors - Agropecuario
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Chacarita Juniors
13.8%
58.0%
market and model agree
Draw
78.6%
20.7%
draw risk
Agropecuario
7.6%
21.3%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
58.0% / 20.7% / 21.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,399 / 1,415
Chacarita Juniors / Agropecuario
RD
175 / 173
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,048-1,750 / 1,070-1,761
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
1.16
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
6.60
Fonbet · weak value +282.9% · model 58.0%
Double chance
12
4.30
Fonbet · weak value +240.8% · model 79.3%
1X
1.03
Fonbet · no value · model 78.7%
X2
1.08
Fonbet · no value · model 42.0%
Handicap
2 0
1.95
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.75
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
9.00
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.03
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 4.30 23.3% |
| 1x | 1.03 97.1% |
| x2 | 1.08 92.6% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.75 57.1% | |
| 1.95 51.3% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 9.00 11.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.03 97.1% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 8.00 12.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.04 96.2% |
Match center
Chacarita Juniors
L
L
W
L
L
Chacarita Juniors
0:1
Tristan Suares
Tristan Suares
Chacarita Juniors
1:2
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
Khimnasiya Khukhuy
Chacarita Juniors
1:0
San-Martin San-Khuan
San-Martin San-Khuan
Chacarita Juniors
0:2
Nueva Chikago
Nueva Chikago
Chacarita Juniors
0:1
Temperley
Temperley
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
0.4
Scored
1.2
Conceded
3
Points
Agropecuario
W
D
D
L
L
Agropecuario
2:1
San-Martin San-Khuan
San-Martin San-Khuan
Agropecuario
1:1
Nueva Chikago
Nueva Chikago
Agropecuario
0:0
Temperley
Temperley
Agropecuario
0:2
Deportivo Maypu
Deportivo Maypu
Agropecuario
1:2
Almagro
Almagro
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.2
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyChacarita Juniors - Agropecuario
Chacarita Juniors
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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