Argentina. Primera Nacional
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Defensores De Belgrano — 36%
Pure model vs market (1 · Defensores De Belgrano): model 29% · market 37% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Defensores De Belgrano 35.9%, draw 34.2%, win CA Estudiantes 29.9%. Model favourite — Defensores De Belgrano.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Defensores De Belgrano.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.48 67.6% |
| yes | 2.47 40.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.42 70.4% |
| 1x | 1.25 80.0% | 1.26 79.4% |
| x2 | 1.48 67.6% | 1.51 66.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.53 28.3% | |
| X | 1.81 55.3% |
| 3.78 26.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Over 1 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.08 48.1% |
| Under 1 | 1.76 56.8% |
Defensores De Belgrano
Oll Boys
Godoy Krus
Kolon Santa Fe
CA Estudiantes
Syudad Bolivar
Almirante Braun
Klub Atletiko Mitre
Rasing Kordova
Oll Boys
Full head-to-head historyDefensores De Belgrano - CA Estudiantes
The Defensores De Belgrano - CA Estudiantes breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
