Argentina. Primera Nacional
Patronato Parana take on Quilmes on August 1, 2026 in the Argentina. Primera Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): Patronato Parana 0-3-2, Quilmes 2-0-3. Sportsbooks lean towards Patronato Parana, an implied 39% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 39% to win — broadly in line with the market. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Patronato Parana — 39%
Pure model vs market (1 · Patronato Parana): model 40% · market 39% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Patronato Parana 38.9%, draw 32.4%, win Quilmes 28.7%. Model favourite — Patronato Parana.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Patronato Parana.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.33 42.9% | 2.34 42.7% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.37 42.2% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.38 42.0% | |
| X | 2.85 35.1% | 2.74 36.5% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.82 35.5% | 2.88 34.7% | 2.88 34.7% |
| 3.20 31.3% | 3.26 30.7% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.25 30.8% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.35 42.6% | 1.55 64.5% |
| yes | 1.52 65.8% | 2.40 41.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.14 87.7% |
| 1x | 1.28 78.1% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 1.49 67.1% | 1.52 65.8% | 5.50 18.2% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 0_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 0_2 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 0_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 0_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 1_0 | 4.75 21.1% |
| 1_1 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 1_4 | 81.00 1.2% |
| 2_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 2_1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 2_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 2_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 2_4 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 3_0 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 3_1 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 3_2 | 34.00 2.9% |
Patronato Parana
Full head-to-head historyPatronato Parana - Quilmes
The Patronato Parana - Quilmes breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
